Related papers: Testing of Binary Regime Switching Models using Sq…
Bi-Directional Grid Constrained (BGC) stochastic processes (BGCSPs) constrain the random movement toward the origin steadily more and more, the further they deviate from the origin, rather than all at once imposing reflective barriers, as…
In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed fractional Brownian motion (fBM) models. The approach we follow is to time-discretize the hidden process and then to design Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…
Time-series imputation benchmarks employ uniform random masking and shape-agnostic metrics (MSE, RMSE), implicitly weighting evaluation by regime prevalence. In systems with a dominant attractor -- homeostatic physiology, nominal industrial…
Many real time-series exhibit behavior adequate to long range dependent data. Additionally very often these time-series have constant time periods and also have characteristics similar to Gaussian processes although they are not Gaussian.…
State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
Learning a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from a fixed batch of trajectories is a non-trivial task whose outcome's quality depends on both the amount and the diversity of the sampled regions of the state-action space. Yet, many MDPs are…
This paper is a supplement to our recent paper ``Alternative models for FX, arbitrage opportunities and efficient pricing of double barrier options in L\'evy models". We introduce the class of regime-switching L\'evy models with memory,…
We describe a measurement device principle based on discrete iterations of Bayesian updating of system state probability distributions. Although purely classical by nature, these measurements are accompanied with a progressive collapse of…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We present a theoretical framework which is generally applicable to the study of time scales of activated processes in systems with Brownian type dynamics. This framework is applied to a prototype system: magnetization reversal times in the…
We consider sequential decision making problems for binary classification scenario in which the learner takes an active role in repeatedly selecting samples from the action pool and receives the binary label of the selected alternatives.…
We continue study of conformal testing in binary model situations. In this note we consider Markov alternatives to the null hypothesis of exchangeability. We propose two new classes of conformal test martingales; one class is statistically…
In this paper we study a reflected Markov-modulated Brownian motion with a two sided reflection in which the drift, diffusion coefficient and the two boundaries are (jointly) modulated by a finite state space irreducible continuous time…
Markov State Models (MSM) are widely used to elucidate dynamic properties of molecular systems from unbiased Molecular Dynamics (MD). However, the implementation of reweighting schemes for MSMs to analyze biased simulations, for example…
This letter introduces a formalism for modeling time-variant channels for diffusive molecular communication systems. In particular, we consider a fluid environment where one transmitter nano-machine and one receiver nano-machine are…
Starting from the hyperbolic Brownian motion as a time-changed Brownian motion, we explore a set of probabilistic models--related to the SABR model in mathematical finance--which can be obtained by geometry-preserving transformations, and…
We extend to Markov-modulated Brownian motion (MMBM) the renewal approach which has been successfully applied to the analysis of Markov-modulated fluid models. It has recently been shown that MMBM may be expressed as the limit of a…
This paper develops the first method for the exact simulation of reflected Brownian motion (RBM) with non-stationary drift and infinitesimal variance. The running time of generating exact samples of non-stationary RBM at any time $t$ is…