Related papers: Testing of Binary Regime Switching Models using Sq…
The switchback is an experimental design that measures treatment effects by repeatedly turning an intervention on and off for a whole system. Switchback experiments are a robust way to overcome cross-unit spillover effects; however, they…
This paper considers estimating the parameters in a regime-switching stochastic differential equation(SDE) driven by Normal Inverse Gaussian(NIG) noise. The model under consideration incorporates a continuous-time finite state Markov chain…
This study introduces a comparative modeling framework using stationary and non-stationary transition probabilities within a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to assess COVID-19 disease dynamics. Stationary transition probabilities assume…
The development of an algorithm with related mathematical concepts and supporting hypothesis for detecting changes in system dynamics from time series along with empirical analysis and theoretical justification is presented. For the method,…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
The stochastic trajectories of molecules in living cells, as well as the dynamics in many other complex systems, often exhibit memory in their path over long periods of time. In addition, these systems can show dynamic heterogeneities due…
With the objective of characterizing the stationary behavior of the scaling limit for shortest remaining processing time (SRPT) queues with a heavy-tailed processing time distribution, as obtained in Banerjee, Budhiraja, and Puha (BBP,…
We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
In this thesis, we extend the recently introduced theory of stochastic modified equations (SMEs) for stochastic gradient optimization algorithms. In Ch. 3 we study time-inhomogeneous SDEs driven by Brownian motion. For certain SDEs we prove…
We study randomized experiments in a service system when stochastic congestion can arise from temporarily limited supply or excess demand. Such congestion gives rise to cross-unit interference between the waiting customers, and analytic…
This paper introduces a backward stochastic differential equation driven by both Brownian motion and a Markov chain (BSDEBM). Regime-switching is also incorporated through its driver. The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the…
Large-scale online platforms and marketplace systems often evaluate new policies through experiments that randomize treatment across operational units (e.g., geographies, regions, or clusters) over many time periods. In these settings,…
Analytical expressions are put forward to investigate the forced spiking activity of abstract neuron models such as the driven leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model. The method is valid in a wide parameter regime beyond the restraining…
Marginal structural models were introduced in order to provide estimates of causal effects from interventions based on observational studies in epidemiological research. The key point is that this can be understood in terms of Girsanov's…
The stochastic block model (SBM) is a widely used framework for community detection in networks, where the network structure is typically represented by an adjacency matrix. However, conventional SBMs are not directly applicable to an…
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…
Anomalous diffusion is frequently described by scaled Brownian motion (SBM), a Gaussian process with a power-law time dependent diffusion coefficient. Its mean squared displacement is $\langle x^2(t)\rangle\simeq\mathscr{K}(t)t$ with…
A class of Brownian dynamics algorithms for stochastic reaction-diffusion models which include reversible bimolecular reactions is presented and analyzed. The method is a generalization of the $\lambda$--$\newrho$ model for irreversible…