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Decision making often occurs in the presence of incomplete information, leading to the under- or overestimation of risk. Leveraging the observable information to learn the complete information is called nowcasting. In practice, incomplete…
Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as…
Data in modern economic and financial applications often arrive as a stream, requiring models and inference to be updated in real time -- yet most semiparametric methods remain batch-based and computationally impractical in large-scale…
We consider the use of extreme learning machines (ELM) for computational partial differential equations (PDE). In ELM the hidden-layer coefficients in the neural network are assigned to random values generated on $[-R_m,R_m]$ and fixed,…
Finite mixture models have been widely used for the modelling and analysis of data from heterogeneous populations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is typically carried out via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The…
This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum…
(Neal and Hinton, 1998) recast maximum likelihood estimation of any given latent variable model as the minimization of a free energy functional $F$, and the EM algorithm as coordinate descent applied to $F$. Here, we explore alternative…
Finite mixture models are powerful tools for modelling and analyzing heterogeneous data. Parameter estimation is typically carried out using maximum likelihood estimation via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Recently, the…
In graph-based active learning, algorithms based on expected error minimization (EEM) have been popular and yield good empirical performance. The exact computation of EEM optimally balances exploration and exploitation. In practice,…
We consider a stochastic blockmodel equipped with node covariate information, that is helpful in analyzing social network data. The key objective is to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. For this task, we devise a…
We present a family of expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms for binary and negative-binomial logistic regression, drawing a sharp connection with the variational-Bayes algorithm of Jaakkola and Jordan (2000). Indeed, our results allow a…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
Deep directed generative models have attracted much attention recently due to their expressive representation power and the ability of ancestral sampling. One major difficulty of learning directed models with many latent variables is the…
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for the maximum likelihood estimation in the latent class analysis. However, the EM algorithm comes with no guarantees of reaching the global optimum. We study the geometry of…
The ideal observer (IO) sets an upper performance limit among all observers and has been advocated for assessing and optimizing imaging systems. For general joint detection and estimation (detection-estimation) tasks, estimation ROC (EROC)…
The Poisson log-normal model is a latent variable model that provides a generic framework for the analysis of multivariate count data. Inferring its parameters can be a daunting task since the conditional distribution of the latent…
In a mixture of linear regression model, the regression coefficients are treated as random vectors that may follow either a continuous or discrete distribution. We propose two Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms to estimate this prior…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
Mixture models of Plackett-Luce (PL) -- one of the most fundamental ranking models -- are an active research area of both theoretical and practical significance. Most previously proposed parameter estimation algorithms instantiate the EM…
This paper proposes Incremental Seeded Expectation Maximization, an algorithm that improves upon the traditional Expectation Maximization computational flow for clusterwise or finite mixture linear regression tasks. The proposed method…