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A novel computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for latent Gaussian models (LGMs) is proposed in this paper. The sampling scheme is a two block Gibbs sampling scheme designed to exploit the model structure of LGMs.…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

We investigate nonlinear state-space models without a closed-form transition density, and propose reformulating such models over their latent noise variables rather than their latent state variables. In doing so the tractable noise density…

Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling. State-space formulations provide a coherent probabilistic framework for such inference, yet…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

This paper presents a fully non-Gaussian version of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling filter. The Gaussian prior assumption in the original HMC filter is relaxed. Specifically, a clustering step is introduced after the forecast…

This work focuses on sampling from hidden Markov models (Cappe et al, 2005) whose observations have intractable density functions. We develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (Doucet et al, 2000 and Gordon et al, 1993) algorithm and a new…

A new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, based on simulating piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), have recently shown great promise: they are non-reversible, can mix better than standard MCMC algorithms, and…

Bayesian inverse problems often involve sampling posterior distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces. Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are characterized by deteriorating mixing times upon mesh-refinement,…

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of Multi-Level Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function…

We investigate the impact of filter choice on forecast accuracy in state space models. The filters are used both to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, via a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, and to…

Many problems arising in applications result in the need to probe a probability distribution for functions. Examples include Bayesian nonparametric statistics and conditioned diffusion processes. Standard MCMC algorithms typically become…

We address the problem of approximating the posterior probability distribution of the fixed parameters of a state-space dynamical system using a sequential Monte Carlo method. The proposed approach relies on a nested structure that employs…

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…

The combinatorial sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) has been demonstrated to be an efficient complementary method to the standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for Bayesian phylogenetic tree inference using biological sequences. It is…

We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the…

When performing Bayesian inference using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, two considerations arise: the accuracy of the posterior approximation and computational efficiency. To address computational demands, Sequential Monte Carlo…