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The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-12 Oliver Kley , Claudia Kluppelberg

We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-27 Kasper Johansson , Mehmet Giray Ogut , Markus Pelger , Thomas Schmelzer , Stephen Boyd

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-18 Khizar Qureshi

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns. Our model captures well both the time-varying characteristic and the asymmetrical heavy-tail property of financial time…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-19 Xing Yan , Weizhong Zhang , Lin Ma , Wei Liu , Qi Wu

Linear regression models are useful statistical tools to analyze data sets in several different fields. There are several methods to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model. These methods usually perform under normally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-10 Şenay Özdemir , Yeşim Güney , Yetkin Tuaç , Olcay Arslan

This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Qianqian Zhu , Songhua Tan , Yao Zheng , Guodong Li

The Lambda Value-at-Risk (Lambda-VaR) is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which has been actively studied in quantitative finance. Over the past two decades, the Expected Shortfall (ES) has become one of the most important risk…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-08 Fabio Bellini , Muqiao Huang , Qiuqi Wang , Ruodu Wang

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-16 Marius Lux , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Stefan Lessmann

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Stéphane Lhaut , Holger Rootzén , Johan Segers

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-20 Susanne Emmer , Marie Kratz , Dirk Tasche

This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Stéphane Girard , Cambyse Pakzad

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-15 Giorgio Calzolari , Roxana Halbleib , Christian Mücher

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. We propose an essentially asymptotically efficient estimation method for the system parameters of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-14 Máté Mánfay , László Gerencsér , Zsanett Orlovits

Quantile regression (QR) relies on the estimation of conditional quantiles and explores the relationships between independent and dependent variables. At high probability levels, classical QR methods face extrapolation difficulties due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-16 Lucien M. Vidagbandji , Alexandre Berred , Cyrille Bertelle , Laurent Amanton

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…

Applications · Statistics 2021-04-21 Hibiki Kaibuchi , Yoshinori Kawasaki , Gilles Stupfler

Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Juan Ballesteros Gómez , Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Pedro Pablo Pérez-Velasco

In this paper, we investigate the extreme-value methodology, to propose an improved estimator of the conditional tail expectation ($CTE$) for a loss distribution with a finite mean but infinite variance. The present work introduces a new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Mohamed Laidi , Abdelaziz Rassoul , Hamid Ould Rouis

This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara , Eugen Ursu

Distortion risk measures are extensively used in finance and insurance applications because of their appealing properties. We present three methods to construct new class of distortion functions and measures. The approach involves the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-29 Chuancun Yin , Dan Zhu