Related papers: Conditional Tail-Related Risk Estimation Using Com…

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the…

Conditional extreme value theory (EVT) methods promise enhanced forecasting of the extreme tail events that often dominate systemic risk. We present an improved two-tailed peaks-over-threshold (2T-POT) Hawkes model that is adapted for…

Making decisions with respect to just the expected returns in Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) cannot account for the potential range of high-risk, adverse outcomes associated with a decision. To this end, safety-aware MCTS often consider…

In observational studies, potential unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental…

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…

Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…

Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) measure is a convenient coherent risk measure. Due to certain difficulties in finding its analytical representation, it was previously calculated explicitly only for the normal distribution. We succeeded to…

Under Solvency II, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is applied, although there is broad consensus that the Expected Shortfall (ES) constitutes a more appropriate risk measure. Moving towards ES would necessitate specifying the corresponding ES…

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

We introduce and study the main properties of a class of convex risk measures that refine Expected Shortfall by simultaneously controlling the expected losses associated with different portions of the tail distribution. The corresponding…

This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…

In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these…

We propose a continuous-time Markov-switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (COMS-GARCH) process for handling irregularly spaced time series (TS) with multiple volatilities states. We employ a Gibbs sampler in…

Safe navigation for mobile robots demands policies that remain reliable under the high-consequence perception uncertainty of cluttered environments. Yet most existing safe reinforcement learning (RL) methods assess safety through average…

This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…

This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…

Our primary aim is to find an estimate of the expected shortfall in various situations: (1) Nonparametric situation, when the probability distribution of the incurred loss is unknown, only satisfying some general conditions. Then, following…

We construct and analyze an estimator of association between random variables based on their similarity in both direction and magnitude. Under special conditions, the proposed measure becomes a robust and consistent estimator of the linear…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…