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Related papers: Bayesian Counterfactual Risk Minimization

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The aim of this paper is to generalize the PAC-Bayesian theorems proved by Catoni in the classification setting to more general problems of statistical inference. We show how to control the deviations of the risk of randomized estimators. A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-01-09 Pierre Alquier

When faced with high frequency streams of data, clustering raises theoretical and algorithmic pitfalls. We introduce a new and adaptive online clustering algorithm relying on a quasi-Bayesian approach, with a dynamic (i.e., time-dependent)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-24 Le Li , Benjamin Guedj , Sébastien Loustau

In meta reinforcement learning (meta RL), an agent seeks a Bayes-optimal policy -- the optimal policy when facing an unknown task that is sampled from some known task distribution. Previous approaches tackled this problem by inferring a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Era Choshen , Aviv Tamar

In this work we consider adversarial contextual bandits with risk constraints. At each round, nature prepares a context, a cost for each arm, and additionally a risk for each arm. The learner leverages the context to pull an arm and then…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-18 Wen Sun , Debadeepta Dey , Ashish Kapoor

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions -- e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities -- typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-26 Ali Siahkoohi , Hyunwoo Oh

Implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times, etc.) is an abundant source of data in human-interactive systems. While implicit feedback has many advantages (e.g., it is inexpensive to collect, user centric, and timely), its inherent biases…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2016-08-17 Thorsten Joachims , Adith Swaminathan , Tobias Schnabel

This paper investigates the problem of simultaneously predicting multiple binary responses by utilizing a shared set of covariates. Our approach incorporates machine learning techniques for binary classification, without making assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 The Tien Mai

Reduced-rank (RR) regression may be interpreted as a dimensionality reduction technique able to reveal complex relationships among the data parsimoniously. However, RR regression models typically overlook any potential group structure among…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-26 Maria F. Pintado , Matteo Iacopini , Luca Rossini , Alexander Y. Shestopaloff

We study linear contextual bandits with access to a large, confounded, offline dataset that was sampled from some fixed policy. We show that this problem is closely related to a variant of the bandit problem with side information. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Guy Tennenholtz , Uri Shalit , Shie Mannor , Yonathan Efroni

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Motivated by applications in clinical trials and finance, we study the problem of online convex optimization (with bandit feedback) where the decision maker is risk-averse. We provide two algorithms to solve this problem. The first one is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-02 Adrian Rivera Cardoso , Huan Xu

Counterfactual learning is a natural scenario to improve web-based machine translation services by offline learning from feedback logged during user interactions. In order to avoid the risk of showing inferior translations to users, in such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-15 Carolin Lawrence , Pratik Gajane , Stefan Riezler

Most PAC-Bayesian bounds hold in the batch learning setting where data is collected at once, prior to inference or prediction. This somewhat departs from many contemporary learning problems where data streams are collected and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Maxime Haddouche , Benjamin Guedj

We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Yunbei Xu , Assaf Zeevi

A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank using only internal loss data, and takes into…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-14 V. Aquaro , M. Bardoscia , R. Bellotti , A. Consiglio , F. De Carlo , G. Ferri

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial when online exploration is costly or unsafe but often struggles with high epistemic uncertainty due to limited data. Existing methods rely on fixed conservative policies, restricting adaptivity…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Jihwan Jeong , Xiaoyu Wang , Jingmin Wang , Scott Sanner , Pascal Poupart

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

The celebrated Bernstein von-Mises theorem ensures that credible regions from Bayesian posterior are well-calibrated when the model is correctly-specified, in the frequentist sense that their coverage probabilities tend to the nominal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Rong Tang , Yun Yang