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This work introduces a new, explicit bound on the Hellinger distance between a continuous random variable and a Gaussian with matching mean and variance. As example applications, we derive a quantitative Hellinger central limit theorem and…
We establish two theorems for assessing the accuracy in total variation of multivariate discrete normal approximation to the distribution of an integer valued random vector $W$. The first is for sums of random vectors whose dependence…
For a sample of absolutely bounded i.i.d. random variables with a continuous density the cumulative distribution function of the sample variance is represented by a univariate integral over a Fourier series. If the density is a polynomial…
Conformal prediction yields a prediction set with guaranteed $1-\alpha$ coverage of the true target under the i.i.d. assumption, which may not hold and lead to a gap between $1-\alpha$ and the actual coverage. Prior studies bound the gap…
We study Bayesian estimation of finite mixture models in a general setup where the number of components is unknown and allowed to grow with the sample size. An assumption on growing number of components is a natural one as the degree of…
We provide statistical guarantees for Bayesian variational boosting by proposing a novel small bandwidth Gaussian mixture variational family. We employ a functional version of Frank-Wolfe optimization as our variational algorithm and study…
Let $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$ be a sequence of independent or locally dependent random variables taking values in $\mathbb{Z}_+$. In this paper, we derive sharp bounds, via a new probabilistic method, for the total variation distance between the…
Parameter estimation for model-based clustering using a finite mixture of normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions is achieved through variational Bayes approximations. Univariate NIG mixtures and multivariate NIG mixtures are…
The aim of this paper is to investigate extremum problems with pay-off being the total variational distance metric defined on the space of probability measures, subject to linear functional constraints on the space of probability measures,…
Tight bounds for several symmetric divergence measures are introduced, given in terms of the total variation distance. Each of these bounds is attained by a pair of 2 or 3-element probability distributions. An application of these bounds…
Coherent lower previsions are general probabilistic models allowing incompletely specified probability distributions. However, for complete description of a coherent lower prevision -- even on finite underlying sample spaces -- an infinite…
The following anticoncentration property is proved. The probability that the $k$-order statistic of an arbitrarily correlated jointly Gaussian random vector $X$ with unit variance components lies within an interval of length $\varepsilon$…
Uniform deviation bounds limit the difference between a model's expected loss and its loss on an empirical sample uniformly for all models in a learning problem. As such, they are a critical component to empirical risk minimization. In this…
We bound the variance and other moments of a random vector based on the range of its realizations, thus generalizing inequalities of Popoviciu (1935) and Bhatia and Davis (2000) concerning measures on the line to several dimensions. This is…
We study the likelihood ratio test in general mixture models where the base density is parametric, the null is a known fixed mixing distribution, and the alternative is a general mixing distribution supported on a bounded parameter space.…
This paper studies quantitative deviation bounds for statistical ensembles evolving under the one-parameter flow of a nearly integrable Hamiltonian system. Combining Nekhoroshev-type stability estimates with phase-mixing arguments, we…
In this paper, we propose the uncertain volatility models with stochastic bounds. Like the regular uncertain volatility models, we know only that the true model lies in a family of progressively measurable and bounded processes, but instead…
We find Gaussian cutoff profiles for the total variation distance to stationarity of a random walk on a multiplex network: a finite number of directed configuration models sharing a vertex set, each with its own bounded degree distribution…
This paper studies identifiability and convergence behaviors for parameters of multiple types in finite mixtures, and the effects of model fitting with extra mixing components. First, we present a general theory for strong identifiability,…
In this paper, tight upper and lower bounds are derived on the weighted sum of minimum mean-squared errors for additive Gaussian noise channels. The bounds are obtained by constraining the input distribution to be close to a Gaussian…