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We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

We consider universal inference in variance components models, focusing on settings where the parameter is near or at the boundary of the parameter set. Two cases, which are not handled by existing state-of-the-art methods, are of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Yiqiao Zhang , Karl Oskar Ekvall , Aaron J. Molstad

We analyze the practices of reservoir computing in the framework of statistical learning theory. In particular, we derive finite sample upper bounds for the generalization error committed by specific families of reservoir computing systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Lukas Gonon , Lyudmila Grigoryeva , Juan-Pablo Ortega

We are living in the big data era, as current technologies and networks allow for the easy and routine collection of data sets in different disciplines. Bayesian Statistics offers a flexible modeling approach which is attractive for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 George Karabatsos , Fabrizio Leisen

Deciding what to sense is a crucial task, made harder by dependencies and by a nonadditive utility function. We develop approximation algorithms for selecting an optimal set of measurements, under a dependency structure modeled by a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Yan Radovilsky , Solomon Eyal Shimony

The question of what can be computed, and how efficiently, are at the core of computer science. Not surprisingly, in distributed systems and networking research, an equally fundamental question is what can be computed in a…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2016-04-01 Fabian Kuhn , Thomas Moscibroda , Roger Wattenhofer

When causal quantities cannot be point identified, researchers often pursue partial identification to quantify the range of possible values. However, the peculiarities of applied research conditions can make this analytically intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-29 Guilherme Duarte , Noam Finkelstein , Dean Knox , Jonathan Mummolo , Ilya Shpitser

This paper aims at providing extremely efficient algorithms for approximate query enumeration on sparse databases, that come with performance and accuracy guarantees. We introduce a new model for approximate query enumeration on classes of…

Databases · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Isolde Adler , Polly Fahey

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet , Aliaksadr Hubin

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-23 Karun Adusumilli , Dita Eckardt

Existence of incomplete and imprecise data has moved the database paradigm from deterministic to proba- babilistic information. Probabilistic databases contain tuples that may or may not exist with some probability. As a result, the number…

Databases · Computer Science 2013-07-04 Andrei Todor , Alin Dobra , Tamer Kahveci , Christopher Dudley

Differential privacy is a modern approach in privacy-preserving data analysis to control the amount of information that can be inferred about an individual by querying a database. The most common techniques are based on the introduction of…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2012-07-05 Catuscia Palamidessi , Marco Stronati

As of 2005, sampling has been incorporated in all major database systems. While efficient sampling techniques are realizable, determining the accuracy of an estimate obtained from the sample is still an unresolved problem. In this paper, we…

Databases · Computer Science 2013-07-02 Supriya Nirkhiwale , Alin Dobra , Chris Jermaine

We present a general approach to deriving bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Our approach can be used to obtain bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds on its tail probabilities, both…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Fredrik Hellström , Giuseppe Durisi

Probabilistic databases play a crucial role in the management and understanding of uncertain data. However, incorporating probabilities into the semantics of incomplete databases has posed many challenges, forcing systems to sacrifice…

Databases · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Michael Wick , Andrew McCallum , Gerome Miklau

We formulate in this paper the mini-bucket algorithm for approximate inference in terms of exact inference on an approximate model produced by splitting nodes in a Bayesian network. The new formulation leads to a number of theoretical and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Arthur Choi , Mark Chavira , Adnan Darwiche

Alignment algorithms usually rely on simplified models of gaps for computational efficiency. Based on an isomorphism between alignments and physical helix-coil models, we show in statistical mechanics that alignments with realistic laws for…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-26 E. Yeramian , E. Debonneuil