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A little over 25 years ago Pemantle pioneered the study of the contact process on trees, and showed that on homogeneous trees the critical values $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$ for global and local survival were different. He also considered…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Xiangying Huang , Rick Durrett

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

We consider a critical bisexual branching process in a random environment generated by independent and identically distributed random variables. Assuming that the process starts with a large number of pairs $N$, we prove that its extinction…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-13 A. P. Zhiyanov , A. V. Shklyaev

Extinction times in resampling processes are fundamental yet often intractable, as previous formulas scale as $2^M$ with the number of states $M$ present in the initial probability distribution. We solve this by treating multinomial updates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-25 Matteo Benati , Alessandro Londei , Denise Lanzieri , Vittorio Loreto

The supercritical series expansion of the survival probability for the one-dimensional contact process in heterogeneous and disordered lattices is used for the evaluation of the loci of critical points and critical exponents $\beta$. The…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 C. J. Neugebauer , S. N. Taraskin

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-09-25 L. D. Valdez , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

We study a percolation model on $\mathbb R^d$ called the random connection model. For $d$ large, we use the lace expansion to prove that the critical two-point connection probability decays like $|x|^{-(d-2)}$ as $|x| \to \infty$, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Matthew Dickson , Yucheng Liu

\emph{Full-bond percolation} with parameter $p$ is the process in which, given a graph, for every edge independently, we delete the edge with probability $1-p$. Bond percolation is motivated by problems in mathematical physics and it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-23 Luca Becchetti , Andrea Clementi , Francesco Pasquale , Luca Trevisan , Isabella Ziccardi

We give an upper bound for the uniqueness transition on an arbitrary locally finite graph ${\cal G}$ in terms of the limit of the spectral radii $\rho\left[ H({\cal G}_t)\right]$ of the non-backtracking (Hashimoto) matrices for an…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2016-10-18 Kathleen E. Hamilton , Leonid P. Pryadko

We propose an approach to calculate the critical percolation threshold for finite-sized Erdos-Renyi digraphs using minimal Hamiltonian cycles. We obtain an analytically exact result, valid non-asymptotically for all graph sizes, which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-05-12 Michelle Rudolph-Lilith , Lyle E. Muller

In dynamical percolation, the status of every bond is refreshed according to an independent Poisson clock. For graphs which do not percolate at criticality, the dynamical sensitivity of this property was analyzed extensively in the last…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-03-27 Yuval Peres , Oded Schramm , Jeffrey E. Steif

We consider the Constrained-degree percolation model on the hypercubic lattice, $\mathbb L^d=(\mathbb Z^d,\mathbb E^d)$ for $d\geq 3$. It is a continuous time percolation model defined by a sequence, $(U_e)_{e\in\mathbb E^d}$, of i.i.d.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-03 Ivailo Hartarsky , Bernardo N. B. de Lima

The contact process is a non-equilibrium Hamiltonian model that, even in one dimension, lacks an exact solution and has been extensively studied via Monte Carlo simulations, both in steady-state and time-dependent scenarios. Although the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-15 Roberto da Silva , Eliseu Venites Filho , Henrique Almeida Fernandes , Paulo F. Gomes

We consider Bernoulli bond percolation on a large scale-free tree in the supercritical regime, meaning informally that there exists a giant cluster with high probability. We obtain a weak limit theorem for the sizes of the next largest…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-04 Jean Bertoin , Geronimo Uribe Bravo

Consider a system of $K$ particles moving on the vertex set of a finite connected graph with at most one particle per vertex. If there is one, the particle at $x$ chooses one of the $\hbox{deg} (x)$ neighbors of its location uniformly at…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-06 Shiba Biswal , Nicolas Lanchier

Generating function equation has been derived for the probability distribution of the number of nodes with $k \ge 0$ outgoing lines in randomly evolving special trees. The stochastic properties of end-nodes (k=0) have been analyzed, and it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 L. Pal

We classify the possible behaviors of a class of one-dimensional stochastic recurrent growth models. In our main result, we obtain nearly optimal bounds for the tail of hitting times of some compact sets. If the process is an aperiodic…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-08 Etienne Adam

The epidemic process on a graph is considered for which infectious contacts occur at rate which depends on whether a susceptible is infected for the first time or not. We show that the Vasershtein coupling extends if and only if secondary…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Achillefs Tzioufas

Let $T$ be a regular rooted tree. For every natural number $n$, let $B_n$ be the finite subtree of vertices with graph distance at most $n$ from the root. Consider the following forest-fire model on $B_n$: Each vertex can be "vacant" or…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-02 Robert Graf

Directed covers of finite graphs are also known as periodic trees or trees with finitely many cone types. We expand the existing theory of directed covers of finite graphs to those of infinite graphs. While the lower growth rate still…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-05 Lorenz A. Gilch , Sebastian Müller