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A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-06-16 Teresa Scholz , Vitor V. Lopes , Pedro Lind , Frank Raischel

We introduce a class of Markov processes, called $m$-polynomial, for which the calculation of (mixed) moments up to order $m$ only requires the computation of matrix exponentials. This class contains affine processes, processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-22 Christa Cuchiero , Martin Keller-Ressel , Josef Teichmann

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

This thesis is devoted to the study of affine processes and their applications in financial mathematics. In the first part we consider the theory of time-inhomogeneous affine processes on general state spaces. We present a concise setup for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-11 Stefan Waldenberger

A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-25 Francesco Lagona , Marco Mingione

This note develops shortly the theory of time-inhomogeneous additive functionals and is a useful support for the analysis of time-dependent Markov processes and related topics. It is a significant tool for the analysis of BSDEs in law. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-21 Adrien Barrasso , Francesco Russo

We study properties of a subclass of Markov processes that have all moments that are continuous functions of the time parameter and more importantly are characterized by the property that say their $n-$th conditional moment given the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Paweł J. Szabłowski

Comparison results are given for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes with respect to function classes induced stochastic orderings. The main result states comparison of two processes, provided that the comparability of their infinitesimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Ludger Rueschendorf , Alexander Schnurr , Viktor Wolf

We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say $m$ is a polynomial of degree at most $m\;\text{.}\;$ We show that then under some…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Paweł J. Szabłowski

This paper is concerned with ergodic properties of inhomogeneous Markov processes. Since the transition probabilities depend on initial times, the existing methods to obtain invariant measures for homogeneous Markov processes are not…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Zhenxin Liu , Di Lu

We derive a moment formula for generalized fractional polynomial processes, i.e., for polynomial-preserving Markov processes time-changed by an inverse L\'evy-subordinator. If the time change is inverse $\alpha$-stable, the time-derivative…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Johannes Assefa , Martin Keller-Ressel

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Anindya Goswami , Subhamay Saha , Ravishankar Kapildev Yadav

We study a time-non-homogeneous Markov process which arose from free probability, and which also appeared in the study of stochastic processes with linear regressions and quadratic conditional variances. Our main result is the explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-16 Wlodek Bryc

A multi--state life insurance model is naturally described in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time--inhomogeneous) Markov process which describes the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Mogens Bladt , Søren Asmussen , Mogens Steffensen

We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-30 N. Crampe , K. Mallick , E. Ragoucy , M. Vanicat

A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Dario Gasbarra , Sangita Kulathinal , Etienne Sebag

The probabilistic symbol is defined as the right-hand side derivative at time zero of the characteristic functions corresponding to the one-dimensional marginals of a time-homogeneous stochastic process. As described in various…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Sebastian Rickelhoff , Alexander Schnurr

In this paper, we consider a continuous-time Markov process and prove a local limit theorem for the integral of a time-inhomogeneous function of the process. One application is in the study of the fast-oscillating perturbations of linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Leonid Koralov , Shuo Yan

Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known world-wide for each doll's encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we identify a large class of Markov process whose moments are easy to compute by…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-26 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Alexander Sokol
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