Related papers: A model for random fire induced tree-grass coexist…
Local coexistence of species in large ecosystems is traditionally explained within the broad framework of niche theory. However, its rationale hardly justifies rich biodiversity observed in nearly homogeneous environments. Here we consider…
We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of…
Dynamic mean field theory is applied to the problem of forest fires. The starting point is the Monte Carlo simulation in a lattice of million cells. The statistics of the clusters is obtained by means of the Hoshen--Kopelman algorithm. We…
A stochastic forest model of young and old age class trees is studied. First, we prove existence, uniqueness and boundedness of global nonnegative solutions. Second, we investigate asymptotic behavior of solutions by giving a sufficient…
Amongst the numerous models introduced with SOC, the Forest Fire Model (FFM) is particularly attractive for its close relationship to stochastic spreading, which is central to the study of systems as diverse as epidemics, rumours, or…
Across plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new…
The hierarchical system of forest ecosystem models based on the theory of individual-based (structured) models of populations and communities is briefly described. New self-thinning models are integrated with tree stand models within a…
This paper presents the development of a new continuous forest fire model implemented as a weighted local small-world network approach. This new approach was designed to simulate fire patterns in real, heterogeneous landscapes. The wildland…
We present novel analytical results about ecosystem species diversity that stem from a proposed coarse grained neutral model based on birth-death processes. The relevance of the problem lies in the urgency for understanding and synthesizing…
This paper investigates the conditions for the stability and emergence of patterns in a new three-component reaction-diffusion system. The system describes the coexistence and interaction of water reservoirs, vegetation, and bushfire…
Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…
We propose a model based on coupled multiplicative stochastic processes to understand the dynamics of competing species in an ecosystem. This process can be conveniently described by a Fokker-Planck equation. We provide an analytical…
We investigate the effect on survival and coexistence of introducing forest fire epidemics to a certain two-species competition model. The model is an extension of the one introduced by Durrett and Remenik [DR09], who studied a discrete…
We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte…
In agricultural landscapes, the composition and spatial configuration of cultivated and semi-natural elements strongly impact species dynamics, their interactions and habitat connectivity. To allow for landscape structural analysis and…
Depending on the rule for tree growth, the forest-fire model shows either self-organized criticality with rule-dependent exponents, or synchronization, or an intermediate behavior. This is shown analytically for the one-dimensional system,…
We propose a Bayesian stochastic cellular automata modeling approach to model the spread of wildfires with uncertainty quantification. The model considers a dynamic neighborhood structure that allows neighbor states to inform transition…
Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…
This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…
We develop a landscape-flux framework to investigate observed frequency distributions of vegetation and the stability of these ecological systems under fluctuations. The frequency distributions can characterize the population-potential…