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Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

The coalescence of binary neutron stars are one of the main sources of gravitational waves for ground-based gravitational wave detectors. As Bayesian inference for binary neutron stars is computationally expensive, more efficient and faster…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2019-11-20 Yann Bouffanais , Edward K. Porter

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Zhize Li , Tianyi Zhang , Shuyu Cheng , Jun Zhu , Jian Li

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

We propose a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for constrained target distributions. Our method first maps the $D$-dimensional constrained domain of parameters to the unit ball ${\bf B}_0^D(1)$. Then, it augments the resulting…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-22 Shiwei Lan , Bo Zhou , Babak Shahbaba

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-09 Edward Meeds , Robert Leenders , Max Welling

We present a novel technique for learning the mass matrices in samplers obtained from discretized dynamics that preserve some energy function. Existing adaptive samplers use Riemannian preconditioning techniques, where the mass matrices are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Anirban Roychowdhury , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have revolutionised mathematical computation and enabled statistical inference within many previously intractable models. In this context, Hamiltonian dynamics have been proposed as an efficient way of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-09 Alessandro Barp , Francois-Xavier Briol , Anthony D. Kennedy , Mark Girolami

In this paper, we develop Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods for inference in asymmetric GARCH models under different distributions for the error term. We implemented Zero-variance and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo schemes for parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-24 Rafael S. Paixão , Ricardo S. Ehlers

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Quantitative long-time entropic convergence and short-time regularization are established for an idealized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo chain which alternatively follows an Hamiltonian dynamics for a fixed time and then partially or totally…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-06 Pierre Monmarché

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-11 Hamed Nikbakht , Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

We propose a fast stochastic Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) method, for sampling from a smooth and strongly log-concave distribution. At the core of our proposed method is a variance reduction technique inspired by the recent advance in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Difan Zou , Pan Xu , Quanquan Gu
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