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We study an optimal threshold functional arising in binary classification for continuous biomarkers. While the ROC curve summarizes discriminatory performance across all thresholds, practical threshold selection must also account for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Renato de Paula , Helena Mouriño , Tiago Dias Domingues

The interpretation of medical images is a challenging task, often complicated by the presence of artifacts, occlusions, limited contrast and more. Most notable is the case of chest radiography, where there is a high inter-rater variability…

In analysis of binary outcomes, the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is heavily used to show the performance of a model or algorithm. The ROC curve is informative about the performance over a series of thresholds and can be…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 John Muschelli

ROC analyses are considered under a variety of assumptions concerning the distributions of a measurement $X$ in two populations. These include the binormal model as well as nonparametric models where little is assumed about the form of…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-02 Luai Al Labadi , Michael Evans , Qiaoyu Liang

The area under the curve (AUC) of summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve is a primary statistical outcome for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies (DTA). However, its confidence interval has not been reported in…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-02 Hisashi Noma , Yuki Matsushima , Ryota Ishii

Several efforts have been done to bring ROC analysis beyond (binary) classification, especially in regression. However, the mapping and possibilities of these proposals do not correspond to what we expect from the analysis of operating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-17 Jose Hernandez-Orallo

In this paper, we present three estimators of the ROC curve when missing observations arise among the biomarkers. Two of the procedures assume that we have covariates that allow to estimate the propensity and the estimators are obtained…

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are plots of true positive rate versus false positive rate which are useful for evaluating binary classification models, but difficult to use for learning since the Area Under the Curve (AUC)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-06 Jonathan Hillman , Toby Dylan Hocking

The proper use of model evaluation metrics is important for model evaluation and model selection in binary classification tasks. This study investigates how consistent different metrics are at evaluating models across data of different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Jing Li

In high-stakes risk prediction, quantifying uncertainty through interval-valued predictions is essential for reliable decision-making. However, standard evaluation tools like the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Yuqi Li , Matthew M. Engelhard

We provide a comprehensive theory of conducting in-sample statistical inference about receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves that are based on predicted values from a first stage model with estimated parameters (such as a logit…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-06 Yu-Chin Hsu , Robert P. Lieli

Flexible estimation of the mean outcome under a treatment regimen (i.e., value function) is the key step toward personalized medicine. We define our target parameter as a conditional value function given a set of baseline covariates which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-29 Ashkan Ertefaie , Luke Duttweiler , Brent A. Johnson , Mark J. van der Laan

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve and the negative predictive value (NPV) curve are three measures of performance for a continuous diagnostic biomarker. The ROC, PPV and NPV curves…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-15 Joseph S. Koopmeiners , Ziding Feng

Everybody writes that ROC curves, a very common tool in binary classification problems, should be optimal, and in particular concave, non-decreasing and above the 45-degree line. Everybody uses ROC curves, theoretical and especially…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-01 Lidia Sacchetto , Mauro Gasparini

A new semiparametric model of the ROC curve based on the resilience family or proportional reversed hazard family is proposed which is an alternative to the existing models. The resulting ROC curve and its summary indices (such as area…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-28 Ruhul Ali Khan

Background: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are widely used to evaluate the performance of Software Defect Prediction (SDP) models that estimate module fault-proneness, i.e., the probability that a module is faulty. A ROC…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Luigi Lavazza , Gabriele Rotoloni , Sandro Morasca

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are plots of true positive rate versus false positive rate which are used to evaluate binary classification algorithms. Because the Area Under the Curve (AUC) is a constant function of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Kyle R. Rust , Toby D. Hocking

Medical studies that depend on electronic health records (EHR) data are often subject to measurement error, as the data are not collected to support research questions under study. These data errors, if not accounted for in study analyses,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-10 Eric J. Oh , Bryan E. Shepherd , Thomas Lumley , Pamela A. Shaw

The analysis of multivariate functional curves has the potential to yield important scientific discoveries in domains such as healthcare, medicine, economics and social sciences. However, it is common for real-world settings to present…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Tui Nolan , Sylvia Richardson , Hélène Ruffieux

Prior to clinical applications, it is critical that risk prediction models are evaluated in independent studies that did not contribute to model development. While prospective cohort studies provide a natural setting for model validation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-13 Parichoy Pal Choudhury , Anil K. Chaturvedi , Nilanjan Chatterjee