Related papers: Body and Tail - Separating the distribution functi…

Deploying deep models in real-world scenarios entails a number of challenges, including computational efficiency and real-world (e.g., long-tailed) data distributions. We address the combined challenge of learning long-tailed distributions…

Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…

Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

We discuss in this paper a possibility of constructing a whole class of asymptotic distribution-free tests for testing regularly varying tail distributions. The idea is that we treat the tails of distributions as members of a parametric…

Rare events, and more general risk-sensitive quantities-of-interest (QoIs), are significantly impacted by uncertainty in the tail behavior of a distribution. Uncertainty in the tail can take many different forms, each of which leads to a…

In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential…

We propose a simple data model inspired from natural data such as text or images, and use it to study the importance of learning features in order to achieve good generalization. Our data model follows a long-tailed distribution in the…

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Real-world data usually present long-tailed distributions. Training on imbalanced data tends to render neural networks perform well on head classes while much worse on tail classes. The severe sparseness of training instances for the tail…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

In this work, we provide robust bounds on the tail probabilities and the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions in the context of model misspecification. They are defined as the optimal value when computing the worst-case tail behavior…

This paper compares the accuracy of tail risk forecasts with a focus on including realized skewness and kurtosis in "additive" and "multiplicative" models. Utilizing a panel of 960 US stocks, we conduct diagnostic tests, employ scoring…

We investigate the ordering between two fundamental measures of dispersion for real-valued risks: the standard deviation (SD) and the Gini mean difference (GMD). Our analysis is driven by a single structural object, namely the mean excess…

We investigate the use of optimization to compute bounds for extremal performance measures. This approach takes a non-parametric viewpoint that aims to alleviate the issue of model misspecification possibly encountered by conventional…

In this paper we are concerned with a sample of asymptotically independent risks. Tail asymptotic probabilities for linear combinations of randomly weighted order statistics are approximated under various assumptions, where the individual…

Despite recent advancements in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, most current studies assume a class-balanced in-distribution training dataset, which is rarely the case in real-world scenarios. This paper addresses the challenging task…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to…

The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…

Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…