Related papers: Body and Tail - Separating the distribution functi…
A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…
We introduce a new actuarial tail-shape index, the $\theta$-index, based on a probability equal level relationship between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The index is defined at each tail probability level as the parameter value for…
Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are…
Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
Current out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods typically assume balanced in-distribution (ID) data, while most real-world data follow a long-tailed distribution. Previous approaches to long-tailed OOD detection often involve balancing…
Count data are omnipresent in many applied fields, often with overdispersion. With mixtures of Poisson distributions representing an elegant and appealing modelling strategy, we focus here on how the tail behaviour of the mixing…
Object frequency in the real world often follows a power law, leading to a mismatch between datasets with long-tailed class distributions seen by a machine learning model and our expectation of the model to perform well on all classes. We…
In this paper we introduce an efficient fat-tail measurement framework that is based on the conditional second moments. We construct a goodness-of-fit statistic that has a direct interpretation and can be used to assess the impact of…
Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…
There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…
We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
Chest X-rays (CXRs) are a medical imaging modality that is used to infer a large number of abnormalities. While it is hard to define an exhaustive list of these abnormalities, which may co-occur on a chest X-ray, few of them are quite…
Recently, long-tailed image classification harvests lots of research attention, since the data distribution is long-tailed in many real-world situations. Piles of algorithms are devised to address the data imbalance problem by biasing the…
The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…
The modelling of multivariate extreme events is important in a wide variety of applications, including flood risk analysis, metocean engineering and financial modelling. A wide variety of statistical techniques have been proposed in the…
This paper proposes a specification test for the conventional distributional assumptions of error terms in binary choice models, focusing on its tail properties. Based on extreme value theory, we first establish that the tail index of the…
The issue related to the quantification of the tail risk of cryptocurrencies is considered in this paper. The statistical methods used in the study are those concerning recent developments in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for weakly dependent…