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Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data…

In using data assimilation to import information from observations to estimate parameters and state variables of a model, one must assume a distribution for the noise in the measurements and in the model errors. Using the path integral…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-12-10 Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-07 P. A. Browne

Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Thomas Frerix , Dmitrii Kochkov , Jamie A. Smith , Daniel Cremers , Michael P. Brenner , Stephan Hoyer

Extensive numerical evidence shows that the assimilation of observations has a stabilizing effect on unstable dynamics, in numerical weather prediction and elsewhere. In this paper, we apply mathematically rigorous methods to showing why…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-08 Dan Crisan , Michael Ghil

4D-variational data assimilation is applied to the Lorenz '63 model to introduce a new method for parameter estimation in chaotic climate models. The approach aims to optimise an Earth system model (ESM), for which no adjoint exists, by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Philip David Kennedy , Abhirup Banerjee , Armin Köhl , Detlef Stammer

Data assimilation refers to the process of obtaining an estimate of a system's state using a model for the system's time evolution and a time series of measurements that are possibly noisy and incomplete. However, for practical reasons, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Matthew Cornick , Brian Hunt , Edward Ott , Michael F. Schatz

We propose closed-form conditional diffusion models for data assimilation. Diffusion models use data to learn the score function (defined as the gradient of the log-probability density of a data distribution), allowing them to generate new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Brianna Binder , Agnimitra Dasgupta , Assad Oberai

In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Bart de Leeuw , Svetlana Dubinkina , Jason Frank , Andrew Steyer , Xuemin Tu , Erik Van Vleck

This paper considers the ill-posed data assimilation problem associated with hyperbolic/parabolic systems describing 2D coupled sound and heat flow. Given hypothetical data at time T > 0, that may not correspond to an actual solution of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Alfred S. Carasso

We introduce a data assimilation strategy aimed at accurately capturing key non-Gaussian structures in probability distributions using a small ensemble size. A major challenge in statistical forecasting of nonlinearly coupled multiscale…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

Data assimilation addresses the problem of identifying plausible state trajectories of dynamical systems given noisy or incomplete observations. In geosciences, it presents challenges due to the high-dimensionality of geophysical dynamical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

In atmospheric and turbulent flow modeling, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is often used to reduce computational cost, while observational data typically originates from the underlying physical system. Motivated by this setting, we study a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Adam Larios , Ali Pakzad , Nicholas White

Four-dimensional weak-constraint variational data assimilation estimates a state given partial noisy observations and dynamical model by minimizing a cost function that takes into account both discrepancy between the state and observations…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Nazanin Abedini , Svetlana Dubinkina

This paper focuses on continuous data assimilation (CDA) for the Navier-Stokes equations with nonlinear slip boundary conditions. CDA methods are typically employed to recover the original system when initial data or viscosity coefficients…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-28 W. C. Wu , H. Y. Dong , K. Wang

An intrinsic property of almost any physical measuring device is that it makes observations which are slightly blurred in time. We consider a nudging-based approach for data assimilation that constructs an approximate solution based on a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Michael S. Jolly , Vincent R. Martinez , Eric J. Olson , Edriss S. Titi

An algorithm for continuous data assimilation for the two- dimensional B\'enard convection problem is introduced and analyzed. It is inspired by the data assimilation algorithm developed for the Navier-Stokes equations, which allows for the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-05-20 Aseel Farhat , Michael S. Jolly , Edriss S. Titi

In this paper we consider fully discrete approximations with inf-sup stable mixed finite element methods in space to approximate the Navier-Stokes equations. A continuous downscaling data assimilation algorithm is analyzed in which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-04-15 Bosco García-Archilla , Julia Novo

We consider the problem of adaptive stabilization for discrete-time, multi-dimensional linear systems with bounded control input constraints and unbounded stochastic disturbances, where the parameters of the true system are unknown. To…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-04 Seth Siriya , Jingge Zhu , Dragan Nešić , Ye Pu

In many real-world applications of data assimilation (DA), the strategic placement of observers is crucial for effective and efficient forecasting. Motivated by practical constraints in sensor deployment, we show that global recovery of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Rui Fang , Ali Pakzad