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We consider local martingales which are standard or stochastic exponentials M of one component X of a multivariate affine process in the sense of Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer (2003). By completing their characterization of…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-06 Eberhard Mayerhofer , Johannes Muhle-Karbe , Alexander G. Smirnov

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

We construct a random partition of the space-time plane $\mathbb{R}_+\times \mathbb{R}$ using two coupled stochastic squared Bessel flows, whose parameters differ by $\delta\in (0,2)$. We show that the cells of this partition correspond to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Elie Aïdékon , Quan Shi , Chengshi Wang

A single jump filtration $({\mathscr{F}}_t)_{t\in \mathbb{R}_+}$ generated by a random variable $\gamma$ with values in $\overline{\mathbb{R}}_+$ on a probability space $(\Omega ,{\mathscr{F}},\mathsf{P})$ is defined as follows: a set $A\in…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-29 Alexander A. Gushchin

We study approximations of the partition function of dense graphical models. Partition functions of graphical models play a fundamental role is statistical physics, in statistics and in machine learning. Two of the main methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 Vishesh Jain , Frederic Koehler , Elchanan Mossel

The convergence of properly time-scaled and normalized maxima of independent standard Brownian motions to the Brown-Resnick process is well-known in the literature. In this paper, we study the extremal functional behavior of non-Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-15 Bikramjit Das , Sebastian Engelke , Enkelejd Hashorva

This study introduces marginal density functions of the general Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process. In the case of the Bayesian MS-VAR process, we provide closed-form density functions and Monte-Carlo…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-27 Battulga Gankhuu

We describe spatio-temporal random processes using linear mixed models. We show how many commonly used models can be viewed as special cases of this general framework and pay close attention to models with separable or product-sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Michael Dumelle , Jay M. Ver Hoef , Claudio Fuentes , Alix Gitelman

A new shrinkage-based construction is developed for a compressible vector $\boldsymbol{x}\in\mathbb{R}^n$, for cases in which the components of $\xv$ are naturally associated with a tree structure. Important examples are when $\xv$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Xin Yuan , Vinayak Rao , Shaobo Han , Lawrence Carin

We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say $m$ is a polynomial of degree at most $m\;\text{.}\;$ We show that then under some…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Paweł J. Szabłowski

We study properties of a subclass of Markov processes that have all moments that are continuous functions of the time parameter and more importantly are characterized by the property that say their $n-$th conditional moment given the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Paweł J. Szabłowski

For a real-valued one dimensional diffusive strict local martingale,, we provide a set of smooth functions in which the Cauchy problem has a unique classical solution under a local H\"older condition. Under the weaker Engelbert-Schmidt…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-11 Umut Cetin , Kasper Larsen

We use orthogonality measures of Askey--Wilson polynomials to construct Markov processes with linear regressions and quadratic conditional variances. Askey--Wilson polynomials are orthogonal martingale polynomials for these processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-29 Włodek Bryc , Jacek Wesołowski

The new class of Markov processes is proposed to realize the flexible shrinkage effects for the dynamic models. The transition density of the new process consists of two penalty functions, similarly to Bayesian fused LASSO in its functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-16 Kaoru Irie

On a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{Q})$ we consider two filtrations $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ and a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time $\theta$ such that the $\mathbb{G}$ predictable processes coincide with $\mathbb{F}$…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-02-06 Stéphane Crépey , Shiqi Song

We identify the local scaling limit of multiple boundary-to-boundary branches in a uniform spanning tree (UST) as a local multiple SLE(2), i.e., an SLE(2) process weighted by a suitable partition function. By recent results, this also…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Alex Karrila

We consider mixed type multiple orthogonal polynomials associated with a system of weight functions consisting of two vectors. One vector is defined in terms of scaled modified Bessel function of the first kind $I_\mu$ and $I_{\mu+1}$, the…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Lun Zhang

Suppose that $n$ statistical units are observed, each following the model $Y(x_j)=m(x_j)+ \epsilon(x_j),\, j=1,...,N,$ where $m$ is a regression function, $0 \leq x_1 <...<x_N \leq 1$ are observation times spaced according to a sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-21 Karim Benhenni , David Degras

By applying an idea of Borodin and Olshanski [J. Algebra 313 (2007), 40-60], we study various scaling limits of determinantal point processes with trace class projection kernels given by spectral projections of selfadjoint Sturm-Liouville…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2016-08-22 Folkmar Bornemann

Let $(\mathcal{E},D(\mathcal{E}))$ be a quasi-regular semi-Dirichlet form and $(X_t)_{t\geq0}$ be the associated Markov process. For $u\in D(\mathcal{E})_{loc}$, denote $A_t^{[u]}:=\tilde{u}(X_{t})-\tilde{u}(X_{0})$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-11 Chuan-Zhong Chen , Li Ma , Wei Sun