Related papers: Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh …
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
Major solar flares are abrupt surges in the Sun's magnetic flux, presenting significant risks to technological infrastructure. In view of this, effectively predicting major flares from solar active region magnetic field data through machine…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
A stochastic model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented, generalising and extending the approach of Wheatland & Glukhov (1998). The probability distribution for the free energy of an active region is described by the…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
A time-dependent model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented based on a stochastic jump-transition model (Wheatland and Glukhov 1998; Wheatland 2008; Wheatland 2009). The magnetic free energy of the model active…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…
Studies on the periodic variation and the phase relationship between different solar activity indicators are useful for understanding the long-term evolution of solar activity cycle. Here we report the statistical analysis of grouped solar…
Solar flares not only pose risks to outer space technologies and astronauts' well being, but also cause disruptions on earth to our hight-tech, interconnected infrastructure our lives highly depend on. While a number of machine-learning…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…
We investigated four major solar flare events that occurred in active regions NOAA 10930 (December 13 and 14, 2006) and NOAA 11158 (February 13 and 15, 2011) by using data observed by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard the Hinode…
Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…
We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the {\sl Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)} over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events…
The automated detection of solar features is a technique which is relatively underused but if we are to keep up with the flow of data from spacecraft such as the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory, then such techniques will be…
The question of whether flares occur as a Poisson process has important consequences for flare physics. Recently Lepreti et al. presented evidence for local departure from Poisson statistics in the Geostationary Operational Environmental…
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to…
During solar flares, magnetic energy can be converted into electromagnetic radiation from radio waves to $\gamma$ rays. Enhancements in the continuum at visible wavelengths give rise to white-light flares, as well as continuum enhancements…
We present a database of 3137 solar flare ribbon events corresponding to every flare of GOES class C1.0 and greater within 45 degrees from the central meridian, from April 2010 until April 2016, observed by the \emph{Solar Dynamics…
Flare-prolific active region NOAA 12673 produced consecutive X2.2 and X9.3 flares on 06/09/2017. To scrutinize the morphological, magnetic, and horizontal flow properties associated with these flares, a 7-hour time-series was used…
The accurate forecasting of solar flares is considered a key goal within the solar physics and space weather communities. There is significant potential for flare prediction to be improved by incorporating topological fluxes of magnetogram…