Related papers: Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh …
Many previous studies have shown that magnetic fields as well as sunspot structures present rapid and irreversible changes associated with solar flares. In this paper we first use five X-class flares observed by SDO/HMI to show that not…
The physics-based method of forecasting the high energy solar flares (SFs) with the help of the neutrino detectors utilizing the coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CE$\nu$NS) is considered. The behavior of the neutrino beams…
A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from August 2011 to July 2012. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study…
Solar flares result from the rapid conversion of stored magnetic energy within the Sun's corona. These energy releases are associated with coronal magnetic loops, which are rooted in dense photospheric plasma and are passively transported…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…
Solar flares strongly affect the Sun's atmosphere as well as the Earth's environment. Quantifying the maximum possible energy of solar flares of the present-day Sun, if any, is thus a key question in heliophysics. The largest solar flares…
We analyzed temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for the almost two solar cycles (1996 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) The…
The properties of active region nests, which are locations on the Sun with recurring flux emergence, are poorly constrained by observations from Earth alone. ESA's Solar Orbiter now monitors the far side of the Sun for extended periods of…
The question of the nature of precursors of solar flares, as well as their relationship with subsequent flares, still has no unambiguous answer. This is due, in particular, to the lack of systematic statistical work, the relative…
Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…
The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
Solar flares result from the sudden release of energy deposited by sub-photospheric motions into the magnetic field of the corona. The deposited energy accumulates secularly between events. One may interpret the observed event statistics as…
We present the discovery of a relationship between the maximum ratio of the flare flux (namely, 0.5-4 Ang to the 1-8 Ang flux) and non-flare background (namely, the 1-8 Ang background flux), which clearly separates flares into classes by…
Flares are a well-studied aspect of the Sun's magnetic activity. Detecting and classifying solar flares can inform the analysis of contamination caused by stellar flares in exoplanet transmission spectra. In this paper, we present a…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic…
In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR…
The combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during 1874-2013 are analyzed and studied the relatively long-term variations in the annual sums of the areas of sunspot groups in 0-10 deg, 10-20 deg, and…
We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…