Related papers: Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh …

In this work we leverage a weakly-labeled dataset of spectral data from NASAs IRIS satellite for the prediction of solar flares using the Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) paradigm. While standard supervised learning models expect a label…

Solar flares - bursts of high-energy radiation responsible for severe space-weather effects - are a consequence of the occasional destabilization of magnetic fields rooted in active regions (ARs). The complexity of AR evolution is a barrier…

We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…

Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…

Solar flares stronger than X10 (S-flares, >X10) are the highest class flares which significantly impact on the Sun's evolution and space weather. Based on observations of Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites (GOES) at soft X-ray…

Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…

Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…

The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the…

Solar flares are known to generate seismic waves in the Sun. We present a detailed analysis of seismic emission in sunspots accompanying M- and X-class solar flares. For this purpose, we have used high-resolution Dopplergrams and…

The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (Rz) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by…

Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…

The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21-24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare…

We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on…

The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that…

We analyse the temporal evolution of the Differential Emission Measure (DEM) of solar active regions and explore its usage in solar flare prediction. The DEM maps are provided by the Gaussian Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (GAIA-DEM) archive,…

Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…

In 1964 (Solar Cycle 20; SC 20), Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar magnetic features, based on H$\alpha$ images. These synoptic maps were unique in that they traced magnetic polarity inversion lines, and…

This paper develops a planetary model to predict the occurrence of intermediate range periodicity in solar activity, in particular the ~155 day Rieger periodicity in flare activity. It is shown that periodicity at half integer multiples of…

Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…

Predicting the severity of the solar eruptive phenomena like flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) remains a great challenge despite concerted efforts for several decades. The advent of high quality vector magnetograms obtained from…