Related papers: Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh …
With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…
The newly revised sunspot number series allows for placing historical geoeffective storms in the context of several hundred years of solar activity. Using statistical analyses of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)…
Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…
Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…
Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources…
The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in Surface Flux Transport (SFT) simulations. The…
A convolutional neural network (CNN) is used to construct a new catalog for solar flares based on high resolution (1-s cadence) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) soft X-ray data. The CNN is trained to identify flare…
Improving the performance of solar flare forecasting is a hot topic in solar physics research field. Deep learning has been considered a promising approach to perform solar flare forecasting in recent years. We first used the Generative…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
Following our recent paper (Petrosian & Chen 2010), we have developed an inversion method to determine the basic characteristics of the particle acceleration mechanism directly and non-parametrically from observations under the leaky box…
Sunspots are the most important indicator of the magnetic activity on the solar surface during a cycle. Every sunspot group is formed and shaped by the magnetic field of the Sun. Hence, the magnetic field intensity shows itself as the size…
Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…
Solar flares are explosions in the solar atmosphere that release intense bursts of short-wavelength radiation and are capable of producing severe space-weather consequences. Flares release free energy built up in coronal fields, which are…
Sunspots or active regions (ARs) with a delta-magnetic configuration are known to be associated with strong eruptions such as flares and mass ejections. This article investigates the relationship between delta-ARs and flares over the course…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
In previous works we have developed a method to convert solar X-ray data, collected with the Yohkoh/SXT, into templates of stellar coronal observations. Here we apply the method to several solar flares, for comparison with stellar X-ray…
A statistical analysis of magnetic energies of the nonlinear force-free and potential fields, and their difference (a proxy for the free magnetic energy) in active regions (ARs) on the Sun of different Hale (Mount Wilson) and McIntosh…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
The aim of the present investigation is to study the spatio-temporal distribution of precursor flares during the 24-hour interval preceding M- and X-class major flares and the evolution of follower flares. Information on associated…
This paper contributes to the growing body of research on deep learning methods for solar flare prediction, primarily focusing on highly overlooked near-limb flares and utilizing the attribution methods to provide a post hoc qualitative…