Related papers: Putin's peaks: Russian election data revisited
Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for…
Although the prime numbers are deterministic, they can be viewed, by some measures, as pseudo-random numbers. In this article, we numerically study the pair statistics of the primes using statistical-mechanical methods, especially the…
Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in…
Presidential primaries are a critical part of the United States Presidential electoral process, since they are used to select the candidates in the Presidential election. While methods differ by state and party, many primaries involve…
How can we probabilistically predict the winner in a ranked-choice election without all ballots being counted? In this study, we introduce a novel algorithm designed to predict outcomes in Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) elections. The…
In this contribution we analyze a parties' vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008 and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta…
We present a method and software for ballot-polling risk-limiting audits (RLAs) based on Bernoulli sampling: ballots are included in the sample with probability $p$, independently. Bernoulli sampling has several advantages: (1) it does not…
New exceptional (i.e. non-repeating) prime number multiplets are given and formulated in terms of arithmetic progressions, along with laws governing them. Accompanying repeating prime number multiplets are pointed out. Prime number…
In Jurek 1985 and 1988 the random integral representations conjecture was stated. It claims that (some) limit laws can be written as probability distributions of random integrals of the form $\int_{(a,b]}h(t)dY_{\nu}(r(t))$, for some…
Examination of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes. The large precinct bias is analyzed with respect to voter heterogeneity and voter…
This work briefly surveys unconventional research in Russia from the end of the 19th until the beginning of the 21th centuries in areas related to generation and detection of a 'high-penetrating' emission of non-biological origin. The…
The first half of the 20th century in the history of Russian mathematics is striking with a combination of dramaticism, sometimes a tragedy, and outstanding achievements. The paper is devoted to St. Petersburg-Leningrad Mathematical School.…
In an election in which each voter ranks all of the candidates, we consider the head-to-head results between each pair of candidates and form a labeled directed graph, called the margin graph, which contains the margin of victory of each…
We analyzed 2012 and 2016 YouGov pre-election polls in order to understand how different population groups voted in the 2012 and 2016 elections. We broke the data down by demographics and state. We display our findings with a series of…
Using a two-point correlation technique, we study emergence of market efficiency in the emergent Russian futures market by focusing on lagged correlations. The correlation strength of leader-follower effects in the lagged inter-market…
"Kompromat" (the Russian word for "compromising material") has been efficiently used to harass Russian political and business elites since the days of the USSR. Online crowdsourcing projects such as "RuCompromat" made it possible to catalog…
We consider the measures of partisan symmetry proposed for practical use in the political science literature, as clarified and developed in Katz, King, and Rosenblatt (2020). Elementary mathematical manipulation shows the symmetry metrics…
A new class of identical particles which may exhibit both Bose and Fermi statistics with respective probabilities $p_b$ and $p_f$ is introduced. Such an uncertainity may be either an intrinsic property of a particle or can be viewed as an…
We studied two probabilistic models of the distribution of primes in the natural number [1].The paper considers the third probabilistic model of the distribution of primes in the natural number. The author proved that the results obtained…
Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…