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A general methodology is introduced for the construction and effective application of control variates to estimation problems involving data from reversible MCMC samplers. We propose the use of a specific class of functions as control…
In this paper we study a family of variance reduction methods with randomized batch size---at each step, the algorithm first randomly chooses the batch size and then selects a batch of samples to conduct a variance-reduced stochastic…
Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…
We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…
Varying coefficient models are popular for estimating nonlinear regression functions in functional data models. Their Bayesian variants have received limited attention in large data applications, primarily due to prohibitively slow…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
Choosing appropriate step sizes is critical for reducing the computational cost of training large-scale neural network models. Mini-batch sub-sampling (MBSS) is often employed for computational tractability. However, MBSS introduces a…
We propose novel scale-invariant error estimators for the Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of mean and variance. For any linear transformation of the distribution of the quantity of interest, the computation cost across…
In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods represent a classical set of techniques to simulate a sequence of probability measures through a simple selection/mutation mechanism. However, the associated selection functions and mutation kernels…
A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…
Multi-model Monte Carlo methods, such as multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), allow for efficient estimation of the expectation of a quantity of interest given a set of models of varying fidelities. Recently,…
In this comment on "Solving Statistical Mechanics Using Variational Autoregressive Networks" by Wu et al., we propose a subtle yet powerful modification of their approach. We show that the inherent sampling error of their method can be…
A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…
The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…
In the thesis we take the split chain approach to analyzing Markov chains and use it to establish fixed-width results for estimators obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures (MCMC). Theoretical results include necessary and…
We consider a univariate semimartingale model for (the logarithm of) an asset price, containing jumps having possibly infinite activity (IA). The nonparametric threshold estimator of the integrated variance IV proposed in Mancini 2009 is…
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…
A current challenge for many Bayesian analyses is determining when to terminate high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. To this end, we propose using an automated sequential stopping procedure that terminates the simulation…
Atomistic simulations provide valuable insights into the physical processes governing material behavior. However, their applicability is fundamentally constrained by the limited time scales accessible to brute-force simulations. This…