Related papers: A Model of Sunspot Number with Modified Logistic F…
Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum…
Using 55 years of daily average temperatures from a local weather station, I made a least-absolute-deviations (LAD) regression model that accounts for three effects: seasonal variations, the 11-year solar cycle, and a linear trend. The…
The appearance of dark sunspots over the solar photosphere is not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point out that the North-South…
Recently, we analyzed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2011 and studied variations in the annual numbers of small, large and big sunspot groups. Here that analysis…
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on…
The relative number of sunspots represents the longest evidence describing the level of solar activity. As such, its use goes beyond solar physics, e.g. towards climate research. The construction of a single representative series is a…
We study the shape of sunspot cycles using the Wolf sunspot numbers and group sunspot numbers of solar cycles 1-23. We determine the most typical "model" cycles and the most asymmetric cycles, and test the validity of the two Waldmeier…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…
The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern…
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar…
The so-called solar cycle is generally characterized by the quasi-periodic oscillatory evolution of the photospheric spots number. This quasi-periodic pattern has always been an intriguing question. Several physical models were proposed to…
In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these…
The mainstream dynamo models predict that the sunspot cycle is non-stationary and stochastic. The official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts only the ongoing sunspot cycle because any forecast beyond one cycle is considered impossible.…
We use recently digitized sunspot drawings from Mount Wilson Observatory to investigate the latitudinal dependence of tilt angles of active regions and its change with solar cycle. The drawings cover the period from 1917 to present and…