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The estimation of cosmological parameters from precision observables is an important industry with crucial ramifications for particle physics. This article discusses the statistical methods presently used in cosmological data analysis,…
We present general, analytic methods for Cosmological likelihood analysis and solve the "many-parameters" problem in Cosmology. Maxima are found by Newton's Method, while marginalization over nuisance parameters, and parameter errors and…
Data analysis methods have always been of critical importance for quantitative sciences. In astronomy, the increasing scale of current and future surveys is driving a trend towards a separation of the processes of low-level data reduction…
In this talk, I argue that the method of analysing the m-z data of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) by assuming exotic energy densities with strange equations of state is misleading and the reasonable remaining option is to make a…
We present a new Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) named Steve for performing type Ia supernova (SNIa) cosmology fits. This advances previous works by including an improved treatment of Malmquist bias, accounting for additional sources of…
We introduce Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS), an algorithm designed to deal with parameter estimation when using contaminated data. We present the algorithm and demonstrate how it works with the help of a Gaussian…
This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples…
We present a comparison of two methods for cosmological parameter inference from supernovae Ia lightcurves fitted with the SALT2 technique. The standard chi-square methodology and the recently proposed Bayesian hierarchical method (BHM) are…
We present a Bayesian hierarchical framework for a principled data analysis pipeline of peculiar velocity surveys, which makes explicit the inference problem of constraining cosmological parameters from redshift-independent distance…
In this paper we outline the framework of mathematical statistics with which one may study the properties of galaxy distance estimators. We describe, within this framework, how one may formulate the problem of distance estimation as a…
There are many issues that can cause problems when attempting to infer model parameters from data. Data and models are both imperfect, and as such there are multiple scenarios in which standard methods of inference will lead to misleading…
For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…
Accounting for selection effects in supernova type Ia (SN Ia) cosmology is crucial for unbiased cosmological parameter inference -- even more so for the next generation of large, mostly photometric-only surveys. The conventional "bias…
Supernova cosmology without spectroscopic confirmation is an exciting new frontier which we address here with the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) algorithm and the full three years of data from the Sloan Digital Sky…
Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In…
Theoretical and observational cosmology have enjoyed a number of significant successes over the last two decades. Cosmic microwave background measurements from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe and Planck, together with large-scale…
We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…
We investigate cosmological parameter inference and model selection from a Bayesian perspective. Type Ia supernova data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR) are used to test the $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, and CPL cosmological models.…
By introducing Crossing functions and hyper-parameters I show that the Bayesian interpretation of the Crossing Statistics [1] can be used trivially for the purpose of model selection among cosmological models. In this approach to falsify a…
These notes aim at presenting an overview of Bayesian statistics, the underlying concepts and application methodology that will be useful to astronomers seeking to analyse and interpret a wide variety of data about the Universe. The level…