Related papers: An Imprecise Probabilistic Estimator for the Trans…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
We consider the problem of performing inference with imprecise continuous-time hidden Markov chains, that is, imprecise continuous-time Markov chains that are augmented with random output variables whose distribution depends on the hidden…
We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…
In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…
We present a novel algorithm to solve a non-linear system of equations, whose solution can be interpreted as a tight lower bound on the vector of expected hitting times of a Markov chain whose transition probabilities are only partially…
Markov chains provide a foundational framework for modeling sequential stochastic processes, with the transition probability matrix characterizing the dynamics of state evolution. While classical estimation methods such as maximum…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…
We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…
We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…
We present an efficient finite difference method for the computation of parameter sensitivities that is applicable to a wide class of continuous time Markov chain models. The estimator for the method is constructed by coupling the perturbed…
We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…
In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…