Related papers: Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Ti…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

Gaining insights from realistic dynamical models of biochemical systems can be challenging given their large number of state variables. Model reduction techniques can mitigate this by decreasing complexity by mapping the model onto a…

We extend the simply-typed guarded $\lambda$-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Despite its prevalence, probabilistic bisimilarity suffers from a lack of robustness under minuscule perturbations of the transition probabilities. This can lead to discontinuities in the probabilistic bisimilarity distance function,…

The cover time of a Markov chain on a finite state space is the expected time until all states are visited. We show that if the cover time of a discrete-time Markov chain with rational transitions probabilities is bounded, then it is a…

This work introduces a new abstraction technique for reducing the state space of large, discrete-time labelled Markov chains. The abstraction leverages the semantics of interval Markov decision processes and the existing notion of…

Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

For a countable-state Markov decision process we introduce an embedding which produces a finite-state Markov decision process. The finite-state embedded process has the same optimal cost, and moreover, it has the same dynamics as the…

Literatures in state space models focus on parametric inference and prediction, which fail if the state space model is not fully specified and the maximum likelihood estimation does not work. In this paper, we assume the state transition…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a…

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs…

We examine data-processing of Markov chains through the lens of information geometry. We first establish a theory of congruent Markov morphisms within the framework of stochastic matrices. Specifically, we introduce and justify the concept…

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters…

Sewer pipe systems are essential for social and economic welfare. Managing these systems requires robust predictive models for degradation behaviour. This study focuses on probability-based approaches, particularly Markov chains, for their…