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Inference-time computation has emerged as a promising scaling axis for improving large language model reasoning. However, despite yielding impressive performance, the optimal allocation of inference-time computation remains poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Parsa Mirtaheri , Ezra Edelman , Samy Jelassi , Eran Malach , Enric Boix-Adsera

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Martina G. Vilas , Safoora Yousefi , Besmira Nushi , Eric Horvitz , Vidhisha Balachandran

The weak and strong laws of large numbers for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains are studied under general conditions. First, under Drift Condition and Contraction Condition in total variation, we prove the weak law of large numbers. Then,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Aaron Lau , Kouji Yano

Perturbation analysis of Markov chains provides bounds on the effect that a change in a Markov transition matrix has on the corresponding stationary distribution. This paper compares and analyzes bounds found in the literature for finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Karim Abbas , Joost Berkhout , Bernd Heidergott

Computational efficiency has remained a critical consideration in scaling high-capacity language models, with inference latency and resource consumption presenting significant constraints on real-time applications. The study has introduced…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Michael Mangrum , Jonathan Pemberton , Benedict Wetherby , Philip Montague

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

We present two different strategies to extend the classical multi-label chaining approach to handle imprecise probability estimates. These estimates use convex sets of distributions (or credal sets) in order to describe our uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-21 Yonatan Carlos Carranza Alarcón , Sébastien Destercke

In this study, a new extension of the Markov Renewal theory is introduced by allowing time to evolve in multiple dimensions. The resulting chains are referred to as multi-time Markov Renewal chains and since this extension is new, the state…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Leonidas Kordalis , Samis Trevezas

A wide class of ``counting'' problems have been studied in Computer Science. Three typical examples are the estimation of - (i) the permanent of an $n\times n$ 0-1 matrix, (ii) the partition function of certain $n-$ particle Statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ravi Kannan

Consideration is given to the three different analytical methods for the computation of upper bounds for the rate of convergence to the limiting regime of one specific class of (in)homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. This class is…

In Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with intermittent state information, decision-making becomes challenging due to periods of missing observations. Linear programming (LP) methods can play a crucial role in solving MDPs, in particular,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Konstantin Avrachenkov , Madhu Dhiman , Veeraruna Kavitha

Low-rank matrix completion concerns the problem of estimating unobserved entries in a matrix using a sparse set of observed entries. We consider the non-uniform setting where the observed entries are sampled with highly varying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-04 Xumei Xi , Christina Lee Yu , Yudong Chen

This paper proposes a new type of recurrence where we divide the Markov chains into intervals that start when the chain enters into a subset A, then sample another subset B far away from A and end when the chain again return to A. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-24 Lars Holden

Heavy-tailed distributions naturally occur in many real life problems. Unfortunately, it is typically not possible to compute inference in closed-form in graphical models which involve such heavy-tailed distributions. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-03-22 Danny Bickson , Carlos Guestrin

We study time-inhomogeneous Markov chains with finite state spaces using Nash and logarithmic-Sobolev inequalities, and the notion of $c$-stability. We develop the basic theory of such functional inequalities in the time-inhomogeneous…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-11 L. Saloff-Coste , J. Zúñiga

We propose a method to approximate continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic processes by a discrete-time Markov chain defined on a nonuniform grid. Our method provides exact moment matching for processes whose first and second moments…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Do Hyun Kim , Ahmet Cetinkaya

Randomized higher-order computation can be seen as being captured by a lambda calculus endowed with a single algebraic operation, namely a construct for binary probabilistic choice. What matters about such computations is the probability of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-12-24 Ugo Dal Lago , Claudia Faggian , Simona Ronchi Della Rocca

Estimating the entropy based on data is one of the prototypical problems in distribution property testing and estimation. For estimating the Shannon entropy of a distribution on $S$ elements with independent samples, [Paninski2004] showed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-25 Yanjun Han , Jiantao Jiao , Chuan-Zheng Lee , Tsachy Weissman , Yihong Wu , Tiancheng Yu

Machine learning (ML) inference serving systems can schedule requests to improve GPU utilization and to meet service level objectives (SLOs) or deadlines. However, improving GPU utilization may compromise latency-sensitive scheduling, as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Haidong Zhao , Nikolaos Georgantas

We consider a strictly substochastic matrix or an stochastic matrix with absorbing states. By using quasi-stationary distributions one shows there is a canonical associated stationary Markov chain. Based upon $2-$stringing representation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-03 Servet Martínez
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