Related papers: Mortality in a heterogeneous population - Lee-Cart…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…
The Gompertz-Makeham distribution, which is used commonly to represent lifetimes based on laws of mortality, is one of the most popular choices for mortality modelling in the field of actuarial science. This paper investigates ordering…
This work studies a stochastic optimal control problem for a pension scheme which provides an income-drawdown policy to its members after their retirement. To manage the scheme efficiently, the manager and members agree to share the…
A common goal in modeling demographic rates is to compare two or more groups. For ex- ample comparing mortality rates between men and women or between geographic regions may reveal health inequalities. A popular class of models for…
Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…
Frailty models are often the model of choice for heterogeneous survival data. A frailty model contains both random effects and fixed effects, with the random effects accommodating for the correlation in the data. Different estimation…
Under the Solvency II regime, life insurance companies are asked to derive their solvency capital requirements from the full loss distributions over the coming year. Since the industry is currently far from being endowed with sufficient…
This paper considers the pricing of equity-linked life insurance contracts with death and survival benefits in a general model with multiple stochastic risk factors: interest rate, equity, volatility, unsystematic and systematic mortality.…
In this paper we introduce a new lifetime distribution by compounding exponential and Poisson-Lindley distributions, named exponential Poisson-Lindley distribution. Several properties are derived, such as density, failure rate, mean…
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…
The second-largest order statistic is of special importance in reliability theory since it represents the time to failure of a $2$-out-of-$n$ system. Consider two $2$-out-of-$n$ systems with heterogeneous random lifetimes. The lifetimes are…
We are concerned with the market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products, which are subject to adjustments derived from the actuarial equivalence principle and driven by (medical) inflation. Such products are…
Count data play a critical role in medical research, such as heart disease. The Poisson regression model is a common technique for evaluating the impact of a set of covariates on the count responses. The mixture of Poisson regression models…