English
Related papers

Related papers: Continuous Record Asymptotics for Change-Points Mo…

200 papers

In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Alexander Aue , Siegfried Hörmann , Lajos Horváth , Matthew Reimherr

In the context of nonparametric regression models with one-sided errors, we consider parametric transformations of the response variable in order to obtain independence between the errors and the covariates. We focus in this paper on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Natalie Neumeyer , Leonie Selk , Charles Tillier

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

The aim of online monitoring is to issue an alarm as soon as there is significant evidence in the collected observations to suggest that the underlying data generating mechanism has changed. This work is concerned with open-end,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-21 Mark Holmes , Ivan Kojadinovic

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In recent years, change point detection for high dimensional data has become increasingly important in many scientific fields. Most literature develop a variety of separate methods designed for specified models (e.g. mean shift model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Yue Bai , Abolfazl Safikhani

We consider the estimation of parametric fractional time series models in which not only is the memory parameter unknown, but one may not know whether it lies in the stationary/invertible region or the nonstationary or noninvertible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-14 Javier Hualde , Peter M. Robinson

We propose a novel resampling-based method to construct an asymptotically exact test for any subset of hypotheses on coefficients in high-dimensional linear regression. It can be embedded into any multiple testing procedure to make…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-26 Anna Vesely , Jelle J. Goeman , Livio Finos

We study the long-time dynamics of the nonlinear processes modeled by diffusion-transport partial differential equations in non-divergence form with drifts. The solutions are subject to some inhomogeneous Dirichlet boundary condition.…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Luan Hoang , Akif Ibragimov

Deep nonparametric regression, characterized by the utilization of deep neural networks to learn target functions, has emerged as a focus of research attention in recent years. Despite considerable progress in understanding convergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-01 Yuling Jiao , Lican Kang , Jin Liu , Heng Peng , Heng Zuo

To detect changes in the mean of a time series, one may use previsible detection procedures based on nonparametric kernel prediction smoothers which cover various classic detection statistics as special cases. Bandwidth selection,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

This Appendix (dated: July 2021) includes supplementary derivations related to the main limit results of the econometric framework for structural break testing in predictive regression models based on the OLS-Wald and IVX-Wald test…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-07 Christis Katsouris

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification in change point regressions, where the signal can be piecewise polynomial of arbitrary but fixed degree. That is we seek disjoint intervals which, uniformly at a given confidence level,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun , Piotr Fryzlewicz

In this work, we introduce statistical testing under distributional shifts. We are interested in the hypothesis $P^* \in H_0$ for a target distribution $P^*$, but observe data from a different distribution $Q^*$. We assume that $P^*$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-03 Nikolaj Thams , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Niklas Pfister , Jonas Peters

Determining accurately when regime and structural changes occur in various time-series data is critical in many social and natural sciences. We develop and show further the equivalence of two consistent estimation techniques in locating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-31 Fuqi Chen , Rogemar Mamon , Severien Nkurunziza

Sequences of labeled events observed at irregular intervals in continuous time are ubiquitous across various fields. Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) provide a mathematical framework for modeling these sequences, enabling inferences such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Victor Dheur , Tanguy Bosser , Rafael Izbicki , Souhaib Ben Taieb

We derive the asymptotic distribution of ordinal-pattern frequencies under weak dependence conditions and investigate the long-run covariance matrix not only analytically for moving-average, Gaussian, and the novel generalized coin-tossing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Angelika Silbernagel , Christian Weiß

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yichen Shen , Mengxin Yu

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-07 Cassandra Milbradt