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This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…

This study proposes a novel framework based on the RuleFit method to estimate Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) in a randomized clinical trial. To achieve this, we adopted S-learner of the metaalgorithm for our proposed framework. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-28 Mayu Hiraishi , Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa , Toshio Shimokawa

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Individuals often respond differently to identical treatments, and characterizing such variability in treatment response is an important aim in the practice of personalized medicine. In this article, we describe a non-parametric accelerated…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-22 Nicholas C. Henderson , Thomas A. Louis , Gary L. Rosner , Ravi Varadhan

Exploration of treatment effect heterogeneity (TEH) is an increasingly important aspect of modern statistical analysis for stratified medicine in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) as we start to gather more information on trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Chieh-Hsi Wu , Chris C. Holmes

This paper provides asymptotically valid tests for the null hypothesis of no treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, I consider the presence of heterogeneity that is not explained by observed characteristics, or so-called idiosyncratic…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-04 Jaime Ramirez-Cuellar

Qualitative interactions occur when a treatment effect or measure of association varies in sign by sub-population. Of particular interest in many biomedical settings are absence/presence qualitative interactions, which occur when an effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-20 Aaron Hudson , Ali Shojaie

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

Identifying anomalous patterns in real-world data is essential for understanding where, when, and how systems deviate from their expected dynamics. Yet methods that separately consider the anomalousness of each individual data point have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-05 William Herlands , Edward McFowland , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Daniel B. Neill

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Chong Ding , Zheng Li , Hon Keung Tony Ng , Wei Gao

When treating depression, clinicians are interested in determining the optimal treatment for a given patient, which is challenging given the amount of treatments available. To advance individualized treatment allocation, integrating data…

Evaluating the treatment effects has become an important topic for many applications. However, most existing literature focuses mainly on the average treatment effects. When the individual effects are heavy-tailed or have outlier values,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Yongchang Su , Xinran Li

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey
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