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Monte-Carlo (MC) Dropout provides a practical solution for estimating predictive distributions in deterministic neural networks. Traditional dropout, applied within the signal space, may fail to account for frequency-related noise common in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Tal Zeevi , Lawrence H. Staib , John A. Onofrey

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

In this article, we propose a space-time Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) estimator for a one-dimensional parabolic stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) of Zakai type. We compare the complexity with the Multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Zhenru Wang , Christoph Reisinger

We propose a hierarchy of multi-level kinetic Monte Carlo methods for sampling high-dimensional, stochastic lattice particle dynamics with complex interactions. The method is based on the efficient coupling of different spatial resolution…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-08-06 Evangelia Kalligiannaki , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac

In this paper we introduce a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for multi-dimensional SDEs driven by Brownian motions. Giles has previously shown that if we combine a numerical approximation with strong order of convergence…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-19 Michael B. Giles , Lukasz Szpruch

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications, however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest.…

Fast and accurate predictions of uncertainties in the computed dose are crucial for the determination of robust treatment plans in radiation therapy. This requires the solution of particle transport problems with uncertain parameters or…

Medical Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Pia Stammer , Lucas Burigo , Oliver Jäkel , Martin Frank , Niklas Wahl

We study time harmonic acoustic scattering on large deviation rough random scatterers. Therein, the roughness of the scatterers is caused by a low Sobolev regularity in the covariance function of their deformation field. The motivation for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-22 Jürgen Dölz , Wei Huang , Michael Multerer

The radiative transfer equation models various physical processes ranging from plasma simulations to radiation therapy. In practice, these phenomena are often subject to uncertainties. Modeling and propagating these uncertainties requires…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-02 Chinmay Patwardhan , Pia Stammer , Emil Løvbak , Jonas Kusch , Sebastian Krumscheid

An algorithm is proposed to solve robust control problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients, based on the so-called MG/OPT framework. The levels in this MG/OPT hierarchy correspond to discretization…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Andreas Van Barel , Stefan Vandewalle

The Self-Learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a Monte Carlo approach that has emerged in recent years by integrating concepts from machine learning with conventional Monte Carlo techniques. Designed to accelerate the numerical study of…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2025-07-18 Gaopei Pan , Chuang Chen , Zi Yang Meng

In this article we propose and develop a new methodology which is inspired from Kalman filtering and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC), entitle the multilevel localized ensemble Kalman--Bucy Filter (MLLEnKBF). Based on the work of Chada et al.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-25 Neil K. Chada

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Daniel Elfverson , Fredrik Hellman , Axel Målqvist

Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2022-12-27 Guanyang Wang , Tianze Wang

Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are the gold standard for studying equilibrium properties of quantum many-body systems -- their phase transitions, ground and thermal state properties. However, in many interesting situations QMC methods…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-08-19 Dominik Hangleiter , Ingo Roth , Daniel Nagaj , Jens Eisert

Knowledge of a machine tool axis to axis location errors allows compensation and correcting actions to be taken to enhance its volumetric accuracy. Several procedures exist, involving either lengthy individual test for each geometric error…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-06-20 Loïc Andolfatto , René Mayer , Sylvain Lavernhe

The Monte Carlo with Absorbing Markov Chains (MCAMC) method is introduced. This method is a generalization of the rejection-free method known as the $n$-fold way. The MCAMC algorithm is applied to the study of the very low-temperature…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 M. A. Novotny

We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Sharana Kumar Shivanand