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Deep learning models are extensively used in various safety critical applications. Hence these models along with being accurate need to be highly reliable. One way of achieving this is by quantifying uncertainty. Bayesian methods for UQ…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-06 Swaroop Bhandary K , Nico Hochgeschwender , Paul Plöger , Frank Kirchner , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

In this report, we present qualitative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method for measuring model uncertainty in neural network (NN) models. We first consider the sources of uncertainty in NNs, and briefly review Bayesian Neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-06 Ronald Seoh

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Andres Altieri , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Florence Alberge , Pablo Piantanida

Jointly extracting entity pairs and their relations is challenging when working on distantly-supervised data with ambiguous or noisy labels. To mitigate such impact, we propose uncertainty-aware bootstrap learning, which is motivated by the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-12 Yufei Li , Xiao Yu , Yanchi Liu , Haifeng Chen , Cong Liu

Modern artificial intelligence is supported by machine learning models (e.g., foundation models) that are pretrained on a massive data corpus and then adapted to solve a variety of downstream tasks. To summarize performance across multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-09 Rachel Longjohn , Giri Gopalan , Emily Casleton

The robustness of neural networks is challenged by adversarial examples that contain almost imperceptible perturbations to inputs, which mislead a classifier to incorrect outputs in high confidence. Limited by the extreme difficulty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Honglin Li , Yifei Fan , Frieder Ganz , Anthony Yezzi , Payam Barnaghi

Intentionally crafted adversarial samples have effectively exploited weaknesses in deep neural networks. A standard method in adversarial robustness assumes a framework to defend against samples crafted by minimally perturbing a sample such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-07 Anaelia Ovalle , Evan Czyzycki , Cho-Jui Hsieh

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Modern autonomous systems with machine learning components often use uncertainty quantification to help produce assurances about system operation. However, there is a lack of consensus in the community on what uncertainty is and how to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-27 Sampada Deglurkar , Haotian Shen , Anish Muthali , Marco Pavone , Dragos Margineantu , Peter Karkus , Boris Ivanovic , Claire J. Tomlin

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

Medical images are increasingly used as input to deep neural networks to produce quantitative values that aid researchers and clinicians. However, standard deep neural networks do not provide a reliable measure of uncertainty in those…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-02-19 Jacob C. Reinhold , Yufan He , Shizhong Han , Yunqiang Chen , Dashan Gao , Junghoon Lee , Jerry L. Prince , Aaron Carass

We present an online and data-driven uncertainty quantification method to enable the development of safe human-robot collaboration applications. Safety and risk assessment of systems are strongly correlated with the accuracy of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Woo-Jeong Baek , Christoph Ledermann , Torsten Kröger

Multimodal models play a key role in empathy detection, but their performance can suffer when modalities provide conflicting cues. To understand these failures, we examine cases where unimodal and multimodal predictions diverge. Using…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Maya Srikanth , Run Chen , Julia Hirschberg

This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-04 Markus Holopainen , Peter Sarlin

The issue of disagreements amongst human experts is a ubiquitous one in both machine learning and medicine. In medicine, this often corresponds to doctor disagreements on a patient diagnosis. In this work, we show that machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Maithra Raghu , Katy Blumer , Rory Sayres , Ziad Obermeyer , Robert Kleinberg , Sendhil Mullainathan , Jon Kleinberg

We propose a new ensemble method for detecting and classifying adversarial examples generated by state-of-the-art attacks, including DeepFool and C&W. Our method works by training the members of an ensemble to have low classification error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-13 Alexander Bagnall , Razvan Bunescu , Gordon Stewart

Recent studies have shown that robustness to adversarial attacks can be transferred across networks. In other words, we can make a weak model more robust with the help of a strong teacher model. We ask if instead of learning from a static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Jiang Liu , Chun Pong Lau , Hossein Souri , Soheil Feizi , Rama Chellappa

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Any data annotation for subjective tasks shows potential variations between individuals. This is particularly true for annotations of emotional responses to musical stimuli. While older approaches to music emotion recognition systems…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Karn N. Watcharasupat , Yiwei Ding , T. Aleksandra Ma , Pavan Seshadri , Alexander Lerch