Related papers: An Economic Bubble Model and Its First Passage Tim…
The ``first passage-time'' (FPT) problem is an important problem with a wide range of applications in mathematics, physics, biology and finance. Mathematically, such a problem can be reduced to estimating the probability of a (stochastic)…
This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts…
Based on the new type of random walk process called the Potentials of Unbalanced Complex Kinetics (PUCK) model, we theoretically show that the price diffusion in large scales is amplified 2/(2 + b) times, where b is the coefficient of…
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model for diffusion price processes. As such we provide a model not only containing a convenient framework for describing socio-economic behavior, but also a sophisticated link to price…
This work presents an asset pricing model that under rational expectation equilibrium perspective shows how, depending on risk aversion and noise volatility, a risky-asset has one equilibrium price that differs in term of efficiency: an…
This paper shows that jumps in financial asset prices are often erroneously identified and are, in fact, rare events accounting for a very small proportion of the total price variation. We apply new econometric techniques to a comprehensive…
Point processes often have a natural interpretation with respect to a continuous process. We propose a point process construction that describes arrival time observations in terms of the state of a latent diffusion process. In this…
We study the factorised steady state of a general class of mass transport models in which mass, a conserved quantity, is transferred stochastically between sites. Condensation in such models is exhibited when above a critical mass density…
This paper proposes to model asset price dynamics with a mixture of diffusion processes where the instantaneous volatility of the underlying diffusion process contains a random vector. The marginal probability distributions of the proposed…
This paper gives a brief overview on the nonparametric techniques that are useful for financial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inferences of instantaneous returns and volatility functions of time-homogeneous and…
We propose a generalized diffusion equation for a flat Euclidean space subjected to a continuous infinitesimal scale transform. For the special cases of an algebraic or exponential expansion/contraction, governed by time-dependent scale…
Bitcoin is currently subject to a significant pay-for-speed trade-off. This is caused by lengthy and highly variable transaction confirmation times, especially during times of congestion. Users can reduce their transaction confirmation…
We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a…
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the…
Many problems in finance require the information on the first passage time (FPT) of a stochastic process. Mathematically, such problems are often reduced to the evaluation of the probability density of the time for such a process to cross a…
We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Based on the…
We present an option pricing formula for European options in a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the volatility process is defined using a fractional integral of a diffusion process and both the stock price and the volatility…
It is a well known fact that local scale invariance plays a fundamental role in the theory of derivative pricing. Specific applications of this principle have been used quite often under the name of `change of numeraire', but in recent work…
We propose a formulation to construct new classes of financial price processes based on the insight that the key variable driving prices $P$ is the earning-over-price ratio $\gamma \simeq 1/P$, which we refer to as the earning yield and is…
In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the…