Related papers: An Economic Bubble Model and Its First Passage Tim…
We address some inverse problems for the first-passage place and the first-passage time of a one-dimensional diffusion process $\mathcal X(t)$ with stochastic resetting, starting from an initial position $\mathcal X(0)= \eta ;$ this type of…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
First-passage processes are pervasive across numerous scientific fields, yet a general framework for understanding their response to external perturbations remains elusive. While the fluctuation-dissipation theorem offers a complete linear…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the…
In this paper we present a new multi-asset pricing model, which is built upon newly developed families of solvable multi-parameter single-asset diffusions with a nonlinear smile-shaped volatility and an affine drift. Our multi-asset pricing…
Noncausal, or anticipative, heavy-tailed processes generate trajectories featuring locally explosive episodes akin to speculative bubbles in financial time series data. For $(X_t)$ a two-sided infinite $\alpha$-stable moving average (MA),…
In this paper mechanisms of reversion - momentum transition are considered. Two basic nonlinear mechanisms are highlighted: a slow and fast bifurcation. A slow bifurcation leads to the equilibrium evolution, preceded by stability loss delay…
This paper considers a Markovian model of a limit order book where time-dependent rates are allowed. With the objective of understanding the mechanisms through which a microscopic model of an orderbook can converge to more general diffusion…
We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states $q$ or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for…
In Part II of this paper, we concentrate our analysis on the price dynamical model with the moving average rules developed in Part I of this paper. By decomposing the excessive demand function, we reveal that it is the interplay between…
For an arbitrary diffusion process $X$ with time-homogeneous drift and variance parameters $\mu(x)$ and $\sigma^2(x)$, let $V_\varepsilon$ be $1/\varepsilon$ times the total time $X(t)$ spends in the strip…
Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced…
This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an…
We develop a heavy traffic diffusion limit theorem under nonstandard spatial scaling for the queue length process in a single server queue employing shortest remaining processing time (SRPT). For processing time distributions with unbounded…
We tested 45 indices and common stocks traded in the South African stock market for the possible existence of a bubble over the period from Jan. 2003 to May 2006. A bubble is defined by a faster-than-exponential acceleration with…
We study a stochastic process $X_t$ related to the Bessel and the Rayleigh processes, with various applications in physics, chemistry, biology, economics, finance and other fields. The stochastic differential equation is $dX_t = (nD/X_t) dt…
The paper discusses multivariate self- and cross-exciting processes. We define a class of multivariate point processes via their corresponding stochastic intensity processes that are driven by stochastic jumps. Essentially, there is a jump…
In finance, the price of a volatile asset can be modeled using fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter $H>1/2.$ The Black-Scholes model for the values of returns of an asset using fBm is given as, [Y_t=Y_0…
We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation…