Related papers: An Economic Bubble Model and Its First Passage Tim…
Establishing unambiguously the existence of speculative bubbles is an on-going controversy complicated by the need of defining a model of fundamental prices. Here, we present a novel empirical method which bypasses all the difficulties of…
We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…
Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…
It is generally accepted that the asset price processes contain jumps. In fact, pure jump models have been widely used to model asset prices and/or stochastic volatilities. The question is: is there any statistical evidence from the…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…
This work builds upon the long-standing conjecture that linear diffusion models are inadequate for complex market dynamics. Specifically, it provides experimental validation for the author's prior arguments that realistic market dynamics…
In this paper, we present a new bivariate model for the joint description of the Bitcoin prices and the media attention to Bitcoin. Our model is based on the class of the L\'evy processes and is able to realistically reproduce the jump-type…
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability…
We introduce a new model in order to describe the fluctuation of tick-by-tick financial time series. Our model, based on marked point process, allows us to incorporate in a unique process the duration of the transaction and the…
In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market originally proposed in [1]. The model takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
The existence of the pricing kernel is shown to imply the existence of an ambient information process that generates market filtration. This information process consists of a signal component concerning the value of the random variable X…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
Several models of stock trading [P. Bak et al, Physica A {\bf 246}, 430 (1997)] are analyzed in analogy with one-dimensional, two-species reaction-diffusion-branching processes. Using heuristic and scaling arguments, we show that the…
Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…
We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the…
Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…
The paper deals with the fast-slow motions setups in the continuous time $\frac {dX^(t)}{dt}=\frac 1\varepsilon B(X^\varepsilon(t),\xi(t/\varepsilon^2))+b(X^\varepsilon(t),\,\xi(t/\varepsilon^2)),\, t\in [0,T]$ and the discrete time…
We consider a controlled diffusion process $(X_t)_{t\ge 0}$ where the controller is allowed to choose the drift $\mu_t$ and the volatility $\sigma_t$ from a set $\K(x) \subset \R\times (0,\infty)$ when $X_t=x$. By choosing the largest…