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We present a unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework for regression tasks that models and predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable as a function of covariates. Our likelihood-based approach…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-05 Alexander März , Thomas Kneib

This paper examines a novel gradient boosting framework for regression. We regularize gradient boosted trees by introducing subsampling and employ a modified shrinkage algorithm so that at every boosting stage the estimate is given by an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-16 Yichen Zhou , Giles Hooker

Many single-target regression problems require estimates of uncertainty along with the point predictions. Probabilistic regression algorithms are well-suited for these tasks. However, the options are much more limited when the prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Michael O'Malley , Adam M. Sykulski , Rick Lumpkin , Alejandro Schuler

Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) are two of the most widely used and highly performing classification and regression models. They aggregate equally weighted CART trees, generated randomly in RF or sequentially in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Dimitris Bertsimas , Yubing Cui

Boosting Trees are one of the most successful statistical learning approaches that involve sequentially growing an ensemble of simple regression trees (i.e., "weak learners"). However, gradient boosted trees are not yet available for…

We present nonparametric algorithms for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules. The proposed algorithms are based on the XGBoost algorithm, which is known as one of the most powerful algorithms in the machine learning literature.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Duzhe Wang , Haoda Fu , Po-Ling Loh

Despite the success of deep learning in computer vision and natural language processing, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) is yet one of the most powerful tools for applications with tabular data such as e-commerce and FinTech. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 ZhenZhe Ying , Zhuoer Xu , Zhifeng Li , Weiqiang Wang , Changhua Meng

Gradient boosted decision trees are some of the most popular algorithms in applied machine learning. They are a flexible and powerful tool that can robustly fit to any tabular dataset in a scalable and computationally efficient way. One of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Daniel de Marchi , Matthew Welch , Michael Kosorok

Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) introduced by Friedman is a powerful supervised learning algorithm that is very widely used in practice---it routinely features as a leading algorithm in machine learning competitions such as Kaggle and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-17 Haihao Lu , Rahul Mazumder

Natural gradient has been recently introduced to the field of boosting to enable the generic probabilistic predication capability. Natural gradient boosting shows promising performance improvements on small datasets due to better training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Liliang Ren , Gen Sun , Jiaman Wu

We propose a soft gradient boosting framework for sequential regression that embeds a learnable linear feature transform within the boosting procedure. At each boosting iteration, we train a soft decision tree and learn a linear input…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Huseyin Karaca , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

TF Boosted Trees (TFBT) is a new open-sourced frame-work for the distributed training of gradient boosted trees. It is based on TensorFlow, and its distinguishing features include a novel architecture, automatic loss differentiation,…

Gradient boosting of prediction rules is an efficient approach to learn potentially interpretable yet accurate probabilistic models. However, actual interpretability requires to limit the number and size of the generated rules, and existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Fan Yang , Pierre Le Bodic , Michael Kamp , Mario Boley

Boosting is a method for learning a single accurate predictor by linearly combining a set of less accurate weak learners. Recently, structured learning has found many applications in computer vision. Inspired by structured support vector…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Chunhua Shen , Guosheng Lin , Anton van den Hengel

Multi-layered representation is believed to be the key ingredient of deep neural networks especially in cognitive tasks like computer vision. While non-differentiable models such as gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs) are the dominant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Ji Feng , Yang Yu , Zhi-Hua Zhou

A deep-learning-based hybrid strategy for short-term load forecasting is presented. The strategy proposes a novel tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB). Current strategies either ensemble submodels of a single…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Yuexin Zhang , Jiahong Wang

Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent method (AGD) is a seminal deterministic first-order method known to achieve the optimal order of iteration complexity for solving convex smooth optimization problems. Two distinct sequences of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Yan Wu , Yipeng Zhang , Lu Liu , Yuyuan Ouyang

We propose PathBoost, a gradient tree boosting method for graph-level classification and regression that learns discriminative path-based features directly from the input graph structure. Building on a previous work, which was tailored to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Claudio Meggio , Johan Pensar , Riccardo De Bin

Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Arnaud Joly

This paper proposes a hybrid framework combining LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks with LightGBM and CatBoost for stock price prediction. The framework processes time-series financial data and evaluates performance using seven models:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Chang Yu , Fang Liu , Jie Zhu , Shaobo Guo , Yifan Gao , Zhongheng Yang , Meiwei Liu , Qianwen Xing
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