Related papers: A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk
We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of {\epsilon}-drawdowns to the one of joint {\epsilon}-drawups,…
We study the problem of finding the worst-case joint distribution of a set of risk factors given prescribed multivariate marginals and a nonlinear loss function. We show that when the risk measure is CVaR, and the distributions are…
A new chaotic financial system is proposed by considering ethics involvement in a four-dimensional financial system with market confidence. A five-dimensional conformable derivative financial system is presented by introducing conformable…
Default risk calculus plays a crucial role in portfolio optimization when the risky asset is under threat of bankruptcy. However, traditional stochastic control techniques are not applicable in this scenario, and additional assumptions are…
We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system…
This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of default) forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future Through-the-Cycle PDs of…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…
In this manuscript, we introduce a novel Decision Flow (DF) framework for sampling decisions from a target distribution while incorporating additional guidance from a prior sampler. DF can be viewed as an AI-driven algorithmic reincarnation…
The Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model is mathematically presented and then used in a Credit-Equity hybrid framework. Next, we propose extensions to the CEV model with default: firstly by adding a stochastic volatility diffusion…
CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a risk metric widely used in finance. However, dynamically optimizing CVaR is difficult since it is not a standard Markov decision process (MDP) and the principle of dynamic programming fails. In this…
We present an exactly-solvable risk-minimizing stochastic differential game for flood management in rivers. The streamflow dynamics follow stochastic differential equations driven by a Levy process. An entropic dynamic risk measure is…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-averse model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider time-consistent, dynamic risk metrics as objective functions to…
Time-to-event data are often recorded on a discrete scale with multiple, competing risks as potential causes for the event. In this context, application of continuous survival analysis methods with a single risk suffer from biased…
eCommerce transaction frauds keep changing rapidly. This is the major issue that prevents eCommerce merchants having a robust machine learning model for fraudulent transactions detection. The root cause of this problem is that rapid…
Consistent Recalibration models (CRC) have been introduced to capture in necessary generality the dynamic features of term structures of derivatives' prices. Several approaches have been suggested to tackle this problem, but all of them,…
We build the time series of optimal realized portfolio weights from high-frequency data and we suggest a novel Dynamic Conditional Weights (DCW) model for their dynamics. DCW is benchmarked against popular model-based and model-free…
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that…
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated…
In this letter, I consider the issue of pricing risky debt by following Merton's approach. I generalize Merton's results to the case where the interest rate is modeled by the CIR term structure. Exact closed forms are provided for the risky…
The current global financial system forms a highly interconnected network where a default in one of its nodes can propagate to many other nodes, causing a catastrophic avalanche effect. In this paper we consider the problem of reducing the…