Related papers: A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk
Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…
This paper studies the valuation of a class of default swaps with the embedded option to switch to a different premium and notional principal anytime prior to a credit event. These are early exercisable contracts that give the protection…
Dynamic watermarking, as an active intrusion detection technique, can potentially detect replay attacks, spoofing attacks, and deception attacks in the feedback channel for control systems. In this paper, we develop a novel dynamic…
We propose MC-CIM, a compute-in-memory (CIM) framework for robust, yet low power, Bayesian edge intelligence. Deep neural networks (DNN) with deterministic weights cannot express their prediction uncertainties, thereby pose critical risks…
In this work, we introduce a time memory formalism in poroelasticity model that couples the pressure and displacement. We assume this multiphysics process occurs in multicontinuum media. The mathematical model contains a coupled system of…
We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the…
An uncollateralized swap hedged back-to-back by a CCP swap is used to introduce FVA. The open IR01 of FVA, however, is a sure sign of risk not being fully hedged, a theoretical no-arbitrage pricing concern, and a bait to lure market risk…
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the…
We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a…
A multivariate density forecast model based on deep learning is designed in this paper to forecast the joint cumulative distribution functions (JCDFs) of multiple security margins in power systems. Differing from existing multivariate…
Learning the dynamics of a process given sampled observations at several time points is an important but difficult task in many scientific applications. When no ground-truth trajectories are available, but one has only snapshots of data…
The cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) quantifies the subject-specific disease risk with competing risk outcome. With longitudinally collected biomarker data, it is of interest to dynamically update the predicted CIF by…
An active margin system for margin loans is proposed for Chinese margin lending market, which uses cash and randomly selected stock as collateral. The conditional probability of negative return(CPNR) after a forced sale of securities from…
Convergence rate analysis for general state-space Markov chains is fundamentally important in areas such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and algorithmic analysis (for computing explicit convergence bounds). This problem, however, is notoriously…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
The first passage time (FPT) problem is ubiquitous in many applications. In finance, we often have to deal with stochastic processes with jump-diffusion, so that the FTP problem is reducible to a stochastic differential equation with…
Conic martingales refer to Brownian martingales evolving between bounds. Among other potential applications, they have been suggested for the sake of modeling conditional survival probabilities under partial information, as usual in…
Classical portfolio models degrade under structural breaks, whereas flexible machine-learning allocation methods often lack arbitrage consistency and interpretability. We propose Causal PDE-Control Models (CPCMs), a framework that…