Related papers: A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk
This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…
In this work we will develop a new approach to solve the non repayment problem in microfinance due to the problem of asymmetric information. This approach is based on modeling and simulation of ordinary differential systems where time…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between…
In piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) the state of a finite-dimensional system evolves continuously, but the evolutive equation may change randomly as a result of discrete switches. A running cost is integrated along the…
We study the problem of designing dynamic intervention policies for minimizing networked defaults in financial networks. Formally, we consider a dynamic version of the celebrated Eisenberg-Noe model of financial network liabilities and use…
We develop a methodology for index tracking and risk exposure control using financial derivatives. Under a continuous-time diffusion framework for price evolution, we present a pathwise approach to construct dynamic portfolios of…
In recent years, the counterparty credit risk measure, namely the default risk in \emph{Over The Counter} (OTC) derivatives contracts, has received great attention by banking regulators, specifically within the frameworks of \emph{Basel II}…
This paper develops an XVA (costs) analysis of centrally cleared trading, parallel to the one that has been developed in the last years for bilateral transactions. We introduce a dynamic framework that incorporates the sequence of…
The structural default model of Lipton and Sepp, 2009 is generalized for a set of banks with mutual interbank liabilities whose assets are driven by correlated Levy processes with idiosyncratic and common components. The multi-dimensional…
In the paper we study dynamics of the arbitrage prices of credit default swaps within a hazard process model of credit risk. We derive these dynamics without postulating that the immersion property is satisfied between some relevant…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
Managing risk at the aggregate level is crucial for banks and financial institutions as required by the Basel III framework. In this paper, we introduce discrete time Bayesian state space models with Poisson measurements to model aggregate…
In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the…
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating…
We study an open problem of risk-sensitive portfolio allocation in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize…
A multi-dimensional extension of the structural default model with firms' values driven by diffusion processes with Marshall-Olkin-inspired correlation structure is presented. Semi-analytical methods for solving the forward calibration…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
This paper considers mutual obligations in the interconnected bank system and analyzes their influence on joint and marginal survival probabilities as well as CDS and FTD prices for the individual banks. To make the role of mutual…