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We examine the feasibility of predicting and subsequently managing the future evolution of a Complex Adaptive System. Our archetypal system mimics a competitive population of mechanical, biological, informational or human objects. We show…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 David M. D. Smith , Neil F. Johnson

Antibiotic resistance is a growing public health problem. To gain a fundamental understanding of resistance evolution, a combination of systematic experimental and theoretical approaches is required. Evolution experiments combined with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-24 Gabriela Petrungaro , Yuval Mulla , Tobias Bollenbach

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is commonly used for parameter estimation and model comparison for intractable simulator-based models whose likelihood function cannot be evaluated. In this paper we instead investigate the feasibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Marko Järvenpää , Jukka Corander

Challenges of assessing complexity and clonality in populations of mixed species arise in diverse areas of modern biology, including estimating diversity and clonality in microbiome populations, measuring patterns of T and B cell clonality,…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-07 Yi Liu , Andrew Z. Fire , Scott Boyd , Richard A. Olshen

Whether evolution can be predicted is a key question in evolutionary biology. Here we set out to better understand the repeatability of evolution. We explored experimentally the effect of mutation supply and the strength of selective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-09-13 Thomas van Dijk , Sungmin Hwang , Joachim Krug , J. Arjan G. M. de Visser , Mark P. Zwart

Segregation of populations is a key question in evolution theory. One important aspect is the relation between spatial organization and the population's composition. Here we study a specific example -- sectors in expanding bacterial…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Ido Golding , Inon Cohen , Eshel Ben-Jacob

Selecting between different dependency structures of hidden Markov random field can be very challenging, due to the intractable normalizing constant in the likelihood. We answer this question with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Julien Stoehr , Pierre Pudlo , Lionel Cucala

Antimicrobial protocols - using substances such as antibiotics or disinfectants - remain the preferred option for preventing the spread of pathogenic bacteria. However, bacteria can develop mechanisms to reduce their antimicrobial…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-17 Nerea Martínez-López , Niclas Nordholt , Frank Schreiber , Míriam R. García

New automated and high-throughput methods allow the manipulation and selection of numerous bacterial populations. In this manuscript we are interested in the neutral diversity patterns that emerge from such a setup in which many bacterial…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-13 Guilhem Doulcier , Amaury Lambert

Also known as likelihood-free methods, approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) methods have appeared in the past ten years as the most satisfactory approach to untractable likelihood problems, first in genetics then in a broader spectrum…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-17 Jean-Michel Marin , Pierre Pudlo , Christian P. Robert , Robin Ryder

Many biological populations exhibit diversity in their strategy for survival and reproduction in a given environment, and microbes are an example. We explore the fate of different strategies under sustained environmental change by…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-24 Ruixi Huang , David Waxman

An evolutionary algorithm (EA) is developed as an alternative to the EM algorithm for parameter estimation in model-based clustering. This EA facilitates a different search of the fitness landscape, i.e., the likelihood surface, utilizing…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-09 Sharon M. McNicholas , Paul D. McNicholas , Daniel A. Ashlock

Bacterial chemotaxis systems are as diverse as the environments that bacteria inhabit, but how much environmental variation can cells tolerate with a single system? Diversification of a single chemotaxis system could serve as an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-11-30 Nicholas W Frankel , William Pontius , Yann S Dufour , Junjiajia Long , Luis Hernandez- Nunez , Thierry Emonet

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical learning technique to calibrate and select models by comparing observed data to simulated data. This technique bypasses the use of the likelihood and requires only the ability to…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Pierre-Olivier Goffard , Patrick J. Laub

The persistence of life requires populations to adapt at a rate commensurate with the dynamics of their environment. Successful populations that inhabit highly variable environments have evolved mechanisms to increase the likelihood of…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Taison Tan , Leonard D. Bogarad , Michael W. Deem

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an approach for sampling from an approximate posterior distribution in the presence of a computationally intractable likelihood function. A common implementation is based on simulating model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-16 D. Prangle , M. G. B. Blum , G. Popovic , S. A. Sisson

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Gérard Biau , Frédéric Cérou , Arnaud Guyader

Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Carolina Valani Cavalcante , Kelly Cristina Mota Gonçalves

A method for implicit variable selection in mixture of experts frameworks is proposed. We introduce a prior structure where information is taken from a set of independent covariates. Robust class membership predictors are identified using a…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-15 Gregor Zens

The evolution of the adaptive immune system is characterized by changes in the relative abundances of the B- and T-cell clones that make up its repertoires. To fully capture this evolution, we need to describe the complex dynamics of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-02 Jonathan Desponds , Andreas Mayer , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak