Related papers: A comment on 'Testing Goodwin: growth cycles in te…
We perform econometric tests on a modified Goodwin model where the capital accumulation rate is constant but not necessarily equal to one as in the original model (Goodwin, 1967). In addition to this modification, we find that addressing…
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…
Historical studies of labor markets frequently lack data on individual income. The occupational income score (OCCSCORE) is often used as an alternative measure of labor market outcomes. We consider the consequences of using OCCSCORE when…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
Goodwin's model is a cornerstone in the study of dynamical systems within macroeconomics, explaining the interaction between employment ratio and wage share in a closed economy. Analogous to predator-prey dynamics in mathematical economics,…
I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…
A growing number of applications involve settings where, in order to infer heterogeneous effects, a researcher compares various units. Examples of research designs include children moving between different neighborhoods, workers moving…
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little…
This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated…
The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…
Understanding the microeconomic details of technological catch-up processes offers great potential for informing both innovation economics and development policy. We study the economic transition of the PR China from an agrarian country to…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
Background Study individuals may face repeated events overtime. However, there is no consensus around learning approaches to use in a high-dimensional framework for survival data (when the number of variables exceeds the number of…
In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…
Machine learning is increasingly being used to generate prediction models for use in a number of real-world settings, from credit risk assessment to clinical decision support. Recent discussions have highlighted potential problems in the…
In economic program evaluation, it is common to obtain panel data in which outcomes are indicators that an individual has reached an absorbing state. For example, they may indicate whether an individual has exited a period of unemployment,…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
Modern computational models in supervised machine learning are often highly parameterized universal approximators. As such, the value of the parameters is unimportant, and only the out of sample performance is considered. On the other hand…