Related papers: A comment on 'Testing Goodwin: growth cycles in te…
I measure the uncertainty affecting estimates of economic inequality in the US and investigate how accounting for properly estimated standard errors can affect the results of empirical and structural macroeconomic studies. In my analysis, I…
This work presents a new approach, called MISFIT, for fitting generalized functional linear regression models with sparsely and irregularly sampled data. Current methods do not allow for consistent estimation unless one assumes that the…
During the last decade Levy processes with jumps have received increasing popularity for modelling market behaviour for both derviative pricing and risk management purposes. Chan et al. (2009) introduced the use of empirical likelihood…
This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…
Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…
The code that was used in Erdil & Ergin (2008, AER) to compute stable improvement cycles sometimes generated unstable matchings. I identify the minor bug in their code that caused this issue, and I present a corrected implementation. While…
The Goodwin model of endogenous growth looks to study the dynamic interaction between employment rate and worker's share of national income in an economy. The model is simplistically and elegantly described by a set of differential…
Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate policies' effects: 26 of the 100 most cited papers published by the American Economic Review from 2015 to 2019 estimate such regressions. It has recently…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
We develop a unified microeconomic and monetary theory of artificial intelligence inference costs and their pass-through to inflation, welfare, and optimal monetary policy. We introduce the Inference-Cost Phillips Curve (ICPC), an augmented…
Ordered response scales are ubiquitous in economics, but their interpretation rests on an untested assumption: that numerical labels reflect equal psychological intervals. The contribution of this paper is to provide a systematic assessment…
The empirical literature that covers Phillips Curve analysis during recessionary periods is notably scant. The Great Recession has rekindled a debate on the validity and stability of the Phillips Curve which is still ongoing. The basis for…
The implementation of a supervision and incentive process for identical workers may lead to wage variance that stems from employer and employee optimization. The harder it is to assess the nature of the labor output, the more important such…
Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The…
While the estimation of risk is an important question in the daily business of banking and insurance, many existing plug-in estimation procedures suffer from an unnecessary bias. This often leads to the underestimation of risk and…
When using incorrect or inaccurate signal models to perform parameter estimation on a gravitational wave signal, biased parameter estimates will in general be obtained. For a single event this bias may be consistent with the posterior, but…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…
While the {estimation} of risk is an important question in the daily business of banking and insurance, many existing plug-in estimation procedures suffer from an unnecessary bias. This often leads to the underestimation of risk and…