Related papers: Central limit theorems for multilevel Monte Carlo …
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in statistics. It states that the standardized sample mean of a sequence of $n$ mutually independent and identically distributed random variables with finite first and…
This paper considers the problem of optimizing the average tracking error for an elliptic partial differential equation with an uncertain lognormal diffusion coefficient. In particular, the application of the multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo…
In this paper we present a rigorous cost and error analysis of a multilevel estimator based on randomly shifted Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice rules for lognormal diffusion problems. These problems are motivated by uncertainty…
Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported,…
We compare the integration error of Monte Carlo (MC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for approximating the normalizing constant of posterior distributions and certain marginal likelihoods. In doing so, we characterize the dependency of…
We aim at analyzing in terms of a.s. convergence and weak rate the performances of the Multilevel Monte Carlo estimator (MLMC) introduced in [Gil08] and of its weighted version, the Multilevel Richardson Romberg estimator (ML2R), introduced…
We evaluate numerically-precise Monte Carlo (MC), Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) and Randomised Quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods for computing probabilistic reachability in hybrid systems with random parameters. Computing reachability probability…
We study the fluctuations of the eigenvalues of real valued large centrosymmetric random matrices via its linear eigenvalue statistic. This is essentially a central limit theorem (CLT) for sums of dependent random variables. The dependence…
The recent paper "Simple confidence intervals for MCMC without CLTs" by J.S. Rosenthal, showed the derivation of a simple MCMC confidence interval using only Chebyshev's inequality, not CLT. That result required certain assumptions about…
Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…
This paper deals simultaneously with linear structural and functional error-in-variables models (SEIVM and FEIVM), revisiting in this context generalized and modified least squares estimators of the slope and intercept, and some methods of…
We give a two-dimensional central limit theorem (CLT) for the second-order quadratic variation of the centered Gaussian processes on $[0,T]$. Though the approach we use is well known in the literature, the conditions under which the CLT…
Establishing central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic averages of Markov chains is a fundamental problem in probability and its applications. Since the seminal work~\cite{MR834478}, a vast literature has emerged on the sufficient…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for their safe and reliable deployment, particularly in critical applications where incorrect outputs can have serious consequences. Current UQ methods typically…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are usually used to measure risks of stochastic systems, which are often estimated by Monte Carlo methods. This paper focuses on the use of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method, whose convergence rate is…
Recent theoretical works have characterized the dynamics of wide shallow neural networks trained via gradient descent in an asymptotic mean-field limit when the width tends towards infinity. At initialization, the random sampling of the…
In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…
Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC…
We propose novel scale-invariant error estimators for the Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimation of mean and variance. For any linear transformation of the distribution of the quantity of interest, the computation cost across…