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Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-02 Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Michael Scheuerer , Christopher Heinz

Adaptive sampling theory has shown that, with proper assumptions on the signal class, algorithms exist to reconstruct a signal in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with an optimal number of samples. We generalize this problem to the case of spatial signals,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-20 John Lipor , Brandon Wong , Donald Scavia , Branko Kerkez , Laura Balzano

The machine learning community has recently devoted much attention to the problem of inferring causal relationships from statistical data. Most of this work has focused on uncovering connections among scalar random variables. We generalize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-10 Doris Entner , Patrik O. Hoyer

We study a generalization of conditional probability for arbitrary ordered vector spaces. A related problem is that of assigning a numerical value to one vector relative to another. We characterize the groups for which these generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-12 Nicolas Monod

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber

In this paper we studied combinatorial problems with parameterized locally budgeted uncertainty. We are looking for a solutions set such that for any parameters vector there exists a solution in the set with robustness near optimal. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-26 Alejandro Crema

A principled approach to cyclicality and intransitivity in paired comparison data is developed. The proposed methodology enables more precise estimation of the underlying preference profile and facilitates the identification of all cyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-08 Rahul Singh , Ori Davidov

Convex clustering has recently garnered increasing interest due to its attractive theoretical and computational properties, but its merits become limited in the face of high-dimensional data. In such settings, pairwise affinity terms that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Saptarshi Chakraborty , Jason Xu

Nearest neighbor imputation is popular for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. In this article, we study the asymptotic properties of the nearest neighbor imputation estimator for general population parameters, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-05 Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim

We consider the problem of jointly estimating the parameters as well as the structure of binary valued Markov Random Fields, in contrast to earlier work that focus on one of the two problems. We formulate the problem as a maximization of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2008-11-11 M. Kolar , E. P. Xing

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

The research area of algorithms with predictions has seen recent success showing how to incorporate machine learning into algorithm design to improve performance when the predictions are correct, while retaining worst-case guarantees when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Michael Dinitz , Sungjin Im , Thomas Lavastida , Benjamin Moseley , Sergei Vassilvitskii

We propose a topic modeling approach to the prediction of preferences in pairwise comparisons. We develop a new generative model for pairwise comparisons that accounts for multiple shared latent rankings that are prevalent in a population…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-01-27 Weicong Ding , Prakash Ishwar , Venkatesh Saligrama

The pairwise winning indices, computed in the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, give the probability with which an alternative is preferred to another taking into account all the instances of the assumed preference model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Sally Giuseppe Arcidiacono , Salvatore Corrente , Salvatore Greco

We study the problem nonparametric classification with repeated observations. Let $\bX$ be the $d$ dimensional feature vector and let $Y$ denote the label taking values in $\{1,\dots ,M\}$. In contrast to usual setup with large sample size…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Hüseyin Afşer , László Györfi , Harro Walk

To alleviate the data requirement for training effective binary classifiers in binary classification, many weakly supervised learning settings have been proposed. Among them, some consider using pairwise but not pointwise labels, when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-14 Lei Feng , Senlin Shu , Nan Lu , Bo Han , Miao Xu , Gang Niu , Bo An , Masashi Sugiyama

Selecting from or ranking a set of candidates variables in terms of their capacity for predicting an outcome of interest is an important task in many scientific fields. A variety of methods for variable selection and ranking have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-23 Zhou Tang , Ted Westling

This version is ***superseded*** by a full version that can be found at http://www.itu.dk/people/pagh/papers/mining-jour.pdf, which contains stronger theoretical results and fixes a mistake in the reporting of experiments. Abstract:…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2010-02-17 Andrea Campagna , Rasmus Pagh

We consider the problem of sequential evaluation, in which an evaluator observes candidates in a sequence and assigns scores to these candidates in an online, irrevocable fashion. Motivated by the psychology literature that has studied…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-20 Jingyan Wang , Ashwin Pananjady

Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-30 Yasser Roudi , Erik Aurell , John Hertz