English
Related papers

Related papers: Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Bett…

200 papers

How should we think of the preferences of citizens? Whereas self-optimal policy is relatively straightforward to produce, socially optimal policy often requires a more detailed examination. In this paper, we identify an issue that has…

General Economics · Economics 2022-10-06 Charles Shaw , Silvio Vanadia

The hidden-action model captures a fundamental problem of principal-agent theory and provides an optimal sharing rule when only the outcome but not the effort can be observed. However, the hidden-action model builds on various explicit and…

General Economics · Economics 2020-04-15 Stephan Leitner , Friederike Wall

One of the most striking features of human cognition is the capacity to plan. Two aspects of human planning stand out: its efficiency and flexibility. Efficiency is especially impressive because plans must often be made in complex…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Mark K. Ho , David Abel , Carlos G. Correa , Michael L. Littman , Jonathan D. Cohen , Thomas L. Griffiths

We show that in delegation problems, a principal benefits from belief misalignment vis-\`a-vis an agent when the latter can flexibly acquire costly information. The agent optimally succumbs to confirmatory learning, leading him to favor the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-30 Pavel Ilinov , Andrei Matveenko , Maxim Senkov , Egor Starkov

Although companies are exhorted to provide more information to the financial community, it is evident that they choose different paths based upon their strategic emphasis and competitive environments. Our investigation explores the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-11 Rajiv Kashyap , Mohamed Menisy , Peter Caiazzo , Jim Samuel

The problem of scheduling unrelated machines has been studied since the inception of algorithmic mechanism design \cite{NR99}. It is a resource allocation problem that entails assigning $m$ tasks to $n$ machines for execution. Machines are…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Yansong Gao , Jie Zhang

Hierarchical reasoning model (HRM) achieves extraordinary performance on various reasoning tasks, significantly outperforming large language model-based reasoners. To understand the strengths and potential failure modes of HRM, we conduct a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Zirui Ren , Ziming Liu

Delays in activities completion drive human projects to schedule and cost overruns. It is believed activity delays are the consequence of multiple idiosyncrasies without specific patterns or rules. Here we show that is not the case. Using…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-03-06 Alexei Vazquez , Chrysostomos Marasinou , Georgios Kalogridis , Christos Ellinas

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-17 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette K. Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

We propose and axiomatize a new model of incomplete preferences under uncertainty, which we call \textit{hope-and-prepare preferences}. An act is considered more desirable than an other act when, and only when, both an optimistic…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-29 Pierre Bardier , Bach Dong-Xuan , Van-Quy Nguyen

The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-18 Alexander Budzier , Bent Flyvbjerg

Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits, overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flyvbjerg , Søren L. Buhl

Many problems that cloud operators solve are computationally expensive, and operators often use heuristic algorithms (that are faster and scale better than optimal) to solve them more efficiently. Heuristic analyzers enable operators to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Pantea Karimi , Solal Pirelli , Siva Kesava Reddy Kakarla , Ryan Beckett , Santiago Segarra , Beibin Li , Pooria Namyar , Behnaz Arzani

Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in Statistics through natural questions such as `Is the the new…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-05 P. C. Álvarez-Esteban , E. del Barrio , J. A. Cuesta-Albertos , C. Matrán

Use-dependent bias is a phenomenon in human sensorimotor behavior whereby movements become biased towards previously repeated actions. Despite being well-documented, the reason why this phenomenon occurs is not yet clearly understood. Here,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-19 Hokin Deng , Adrian Haith

This study replicates and adapts the experiment of Hoelzl and Rustichini (2005), which examined overplacement, i.e., overconfidence in relative self-assessments, by analyzing individuals' voting preferences between a performance-based and a…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-22 Marius Protte

The ``prediction + optimal control'' scheme has shown good performance in many applications of automotive, traffic, robot, and building control. In practice, the prediction results are simply considered correct in the optimal control design…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-07 Xiangrui Zeng , Cheng Yin , Zhouping Yin

The HCI community commonly evaluates decision support systems based on whether they improve task performance or promote appropriate user reliance. In this work, we look beyond decision outcomes to examine the process through which users…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Michaela Benk , Tim Miller

Similar to what happens between humans in the real world, in open multi-agent systems distributed over the Internet, such as online social networks or wiki technologies, agents often form coalitions by agreeing to act as a whole in order to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2010-10-27 Matteo Cristani , Erisa Karafili , Luca Viganò

We initiate the study of the effects of non-transparency in decision rules on individuals' ability to improve in strategic learning settings. Inspired by real-life settings, such as loan approvals and college admissions, we remove the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Yahav Bechavod , Chara Podimata , Zhiwei Steven Wu , Juba Ziani