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We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Robert Lunde , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

The limiting stability of invariant probability measures of time homogeneous transition semigroups for autonomous stochastic systems has been extensively discussed in the literature. In this paper we initially initiate a program to study…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Renhai Wang , Tomas Caraballo , Nguyen Huy Tuan

For solving pseudo-convex global optimization problems, we present a novel fully adaptive steepest descent method (or ASDM) without any hard-to-estimate parameters. For the step-size regulation in an $\varepsilon$-normalized direction, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-12 Z. R. Gabidullina

We study numerical schemes for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). We introduce a general method of proof of non-asymptotic uniform in time error bounds on numerical integrators for SPDEs, ensuring the schemes capture both…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Can Huang , Michela Ottobre , Gideon Simpson

In this work, we study the problem of learning a nonlinear dynamical system by parameterizing its dynamics using basis functions. We assume that disturbances occur at each time step with an arbitrary probability $p$, which models the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-24 Haixiang Zhang , Baturalp Yalcin , Javad Lavaei , Eduardo D. Sontag

This article establishes sufficient conditions for a linear-in-time bound on the non-asymptotic variance of particle approximations of time-homogeneous Feynman-Kac formulae. These formulae appear in a wide variety of applications including…

Computation · Statistics 2012-02-14 Nick Whiteley , Nikolas Kantas , Ajay Jasra

Stochastic nonconvex optimization problems with nonlinear constraints have a broad range of applications in intelligent transportation, cyber-security, and smart grids. In this paper, first, we propose an inexact-proximal accelerated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-08 Morteza Boroun , Afrooz Jalilzadeh

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-22 Anastasios Tsiamis , George J. Pappas

In this work, we present a novel robustness measure for continuous-time stochastic trajectories with respect to Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specifications. We show the soundness of the measure and develop a monitor for reasoning about…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Roland B. Ilyes , Qi Heng Ho , Morteza Lahijanian

Motivated by neural network training in finite-precision arithmetic environments, this work studies the convergence of perturbed iterate SGD using adaptive step sizes in an environment with numerical error. Considering a general stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Michael R. Metel

In convex optimization, continuous-time counterparts have been a fruitful tool for analyzing momentum algorithms. Fewer such examples are available when the function to minimize is non-convex. In several cases, discrepancies arise between…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Julien Hermant , Jean-François Aujol , Charles Dossal , Lorick Huang , Aude Rondepierre

We obtain non-symmetric upper and lower bounds on the rate of convergence of general monotone approximation/numerical schemes for parabolic Hamilton Jacobi Bellman Equations by introducing a new notion of consistency. We apply our general…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-11-11 Guy Barles , Espen R. Jakobsen

We study decentralized optimization where multiple agents minimize the average of their (strongly) convex, smooth losses over a communication graph. Convergence of the existing decentralized methods generally hinges on an apriori, proper…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-01 Ilya Kuruzov , Xiaokai Chen , Gesualdo Scutari , Alexander Gasnikov

The mean absolute deviation about the mean is an alternative to the standard deviation for measuring dispersion in a sample or in a population. For stationary, ergodic time series with a finite first moment, an asymptotic expansion for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-18 Johan Segers

This paper presents a saddlepoint approximation of the random-coding union bound of Polyanskiy et al. for i.i.d. random coding over discrete memoryless channels. The approximation is single-letter, and can thus be computed efficiently.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-28 Jonathan Scarlett , Alfonso Martinez , Albert Guillén i Fàbregas

Linear two-timescale stochastic approximation (SA) scheme is an important class of algorithms which has become popular in reinforcement learning (RL), particularly for the policy evaluation problem. Recently, a number of works have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-05 Maxim Kaledin , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Vladislav Tadic , Hoi-To Wai

A distributed average consensus algorithm in which every sensor transmits with bounded peak power is proposed. In the presence of communication noise, it is shown that the nodes reach consensus asymptotically to a finite random variable…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2015-06-15 Sivaraman Dasarathan , Cihan Tepedelenlioglu , Mahesh Banavar , Andreas Spanias

This paper considers an adaptive tracking control problem for stochastic regression systems with multi-threshold quantized observations. Different from the existing studies for periodic reference signals, the reference signal in this paper…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-30 Chuiliu Kong , Ying Wang

Stochastic gradient descent is a canonical tool for addressing stochastic optimization problems, and forms the bedrock of modern machine learning and statistics. In this work, we seek to balance the fact that attenuating step-size is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-10 Zhan Gao , Alec Koppel , Alejandro Ribeiro

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) plays a central role in modern machine learning. While there is extensive work on providing error upper bound for SGD, not much is known about SGD error lower bound. In this paper, we study the convergence…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-21 Zhiyan Ding , Yiding Chen , Qin Li , Xiaojin Zhu