Related papers: Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…
The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the…
Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future…
Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality…
In this work, we study the critical behavior of an epidemic propagation model that considers individuals that can develop drug resistance. In our lattice model, each site can be found in one of four states: empty, healthy, normally infected…
Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…
Machine learning models are increasingly used in the medical domain to study the association between risk factors and diseases to support practitioners in predicting health outcomes. In this paper, we showcase the use of machine-learned…
Infectious disease outbreak has a significant impact on morbidity, mortality and can cause economic instability of many countries. As global trade is growing, goods and individuals are expected to travel across the border, an infected…
Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…
We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…
Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
Epidemic spreading is well understood when a disease propagates around a contact graph. In a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible setting, spectral conditions characterise whether the disease vanishes. However, modelling human…