Related papers: Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…
Early Warning Signals (EWSs) are vital for implementing preventive measures before a disease turns into a pandemic. While new diseases exhibit unique behaviors, they often share fundamental characteristics from a dynamical systems…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
Understanding the interplay between human behavioral phenomena and infectious disease dynamics has been one of the central challenges of mathematical epidemiology. However, socio-cognitive processes critical for the initiation of desired…
The study of infectious disease has been of interest to ecologists since long. The initiation of epidemic and the long term disease dynamics are largely influenced by the nature of the underlying consumer (host)-resource dynamics.…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
In ecological systems heterogeneous interactions between pathogens take place simultaneously. This occurs, for instance, when two pathogens cooperate, while at the same time multiple strains of these pathogens co-circulate and compete.…
This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic…
Increasing rates of global trade and travel, as well as changing climatic patterns, have led to more frequent outbreaks of plant disease epidemics worldwide. Mathematical modelling is a key tool in predicting where and how these new threats…
Parameter inference and state estimation in stochastic and partially observed biological systems remain major problems in mathematical biology. In this work, we introduce a two-dimensional lattice graph model for the spread of infectious…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
Incorporating decision-making dynamics during an outbreak poses a challenge for epidemiology, faced by several modeling approaches siloed by different disciplines. We propose an epi-economic model where high-frequency choices of individuals…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
We investigate how the properties of epidemic networks change depending on the availability of different types of data on a disease outbreak. This is achieved by introducing mathematical and computational methods that estimate the…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…